Europe: Geopolitical tensions lift brent above $60 while CO₂ prices hit new highs

During the second week of January, Brent front-month futures remained above $60/bbl for almost the entire period, except on January 7, when they fell to their weekly minimum of $59.96/bbl. Prices strengthened toward the end of the week, and on Friday, January 9, they reached a weekly maximum of $63.34/bbl, which was 4.3% higher than the previous Friday and the highest level since early December 2025.

This upward trend was mainly supported by renewed geopolitical tensions, including uncertainty surrounding Venezuela, the announcement of new US sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, and concerns that instability in Iran could disrupt future supply. These factors helped keep prices above $60/bbl for most of the week, although the announcement that Venezuela would deliver 30–50 million barrels of oil to the United States contributed to the temporary price dip on January 7.

In the gas market, TTF front-month futures opened the week with a sharp decline, falling by 5.5% compared with the previous Friday. On Monday, January 5, they hit their weekly low of €27.40/MWh. Prices then recovered, peaking on January 7 at €28.78/MWh, before easing again in the final two sessions of the week. By Friday, January 9, the settlement price stood at €28.13/MWh, which was 3.0% lower than a week earlier.

Upward pressure on gas prices came from concerns over LNG supply security and European storage levels, which were below 55%. Nevertheless, forecasts pointing to milder weather conditions in the coming days limited the rally and helped keep prices below €29/MWh.

CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2026 contract in the EEX market showed a clear upward trend. On Monday, January 5, they recorded their weekly minimum of €87.25/t, before rising steadily through the rest of the week. By Friday, January 9, prices reached €89.56/t, which was 1.4% higher than the previous Friday and the highest level since at least the end of December 2023, AleaSoft reports.

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