Day-ahead electricity prices for delivery on Sept. 29 diverged across Southeast Europe, with higher levels in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria alongside lower prices in Serbia and Greece. Hungary’s HUPX base price rose to €170.11/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX base price fell to €110.06/MWh. The same session also saw changes in regional physical flows, shifting the area from net exports to net imports.
Hungary’s HUPX base price increased by €8.9/MWh to €170.11/MWh. Romania climbed €15.6/MWh to €169.92/MWh and Bulgaria gained €15.7/MWh to €161.82/MWh. Croatia reached €172.76/MWh and Slovenia rose to €174.01/MWh.
In contrast, Serbia’s SEEPEX slipped to €110.06/MWh, while Greece fell to €121.97/MWh. Montenegro was at €130.96/MWh and North Macedonia at €132.21/MWh. Albania averaged €147.58/MWh, about €23 below Hungary.
The spread between markets widened the range of outcomes for the region’s day-ahead curve. Serbia traded almost €60/MWh below Hungary, and Greece was about €48/MWh below HUPX. Montenegro and North Macedonia were around €38-39/MWh cheaper than Hungary, while Italy averaged about €203/MWh, nearly €93 above Serbia and about €81 above Greece.
Hungary-Germany move aligns with a shift in regional flows
The largest day-ahead change was reported between Hungary and Germany. German prices fell to around €165.83/MWh, leaving Hungary about €4.3/MWh above Germany on Sept. 29. A day earlier, Hungary had traded roughly €34/MWh below Germany, implying a swing of nearly €39/MWh in the bilateral spread.
Austria was priced at €180.55/MWh, while Italy remained the highest-priced major market at about €203/MWh. The change coincided with a regional balance reversal affecting north-south and east-west trading patterns. Combined Hungary and SEE consumption rose to 29,105 MW, up around 740 MW day on day.
The region moved from net exports of 1,288 MW on Sept. 28 to net imports of 555 MW on Sept. 29, a swing of more than 1.8 GW. Imports from the Austria-Slovakia/core direction reached about 1,367 MW, reversing the previous day’s 501 MW flow in the opposite direction.
Hungary remained a net importer of roughly 1,007 MW versus 731 MW a day earlier. Domestic consumption increased to 4,516 MW against generation of around 3,509 MW. Commercial flows showed strong imports from Slovakia and Romania, while Hungary continued exporting towards Croatia and Slovenia.
Northern/eastern surpluses tighten as southern prices compress
Romania stayed a net exporter but reduced its surplus sharply to about 187 MW from 866 MW on Monday. Bulgaria’s exports also declined to 571 MW from 1,212 MW previously reported for Monday’s comparison point. These reductions tightened the northern and eastern SEE balance as demand recovered from lower weekend levels.
Southern markets showed different price behavior despite continued exports from Greece averaging more than 1 GW per day. Greece fell by €13.1/MWh to €121.97/MWh, with peak-period average at only €55.7/MWh compared with an off-peak average of €188.2/MWh; the minimum hourly price reached zero.
Serbia remained cheaper on a baseload basis with SEEPEX averaging €110.1/MWh and peak power at only €103.1/MWh; the daily minimum was €9.8/MWh. The maximum still reached €240.1/MWh, indicating high intraday volatility alongside a low daily average.
Montenegro dropped by more than €34/MWh to €131/MWh and North Macedonia decreased by about €18/MWh to €132.2/MWh. The lowest-price timing differed between markets: Greece’s deepest compression occurred during the solar-heavy daytime period, while Serbia’s minimum was recorded in the early hours.
Italy remains a key outlet; forward prices point to firmness in Hungary
Italy continued as the main high-price outlet for surplus SEE electricity, with regional exports towards Italy averaging about 1,245 MW while Italy traded around €203/MWh on Sept. 29 delivery pricing levels cited in the report.
Montenegro’s interconnector flows reflected that pull: it exported about 532 MW towards Italy on a baseload basis even while its overall system remained a small net importer. The same flow pattern described drew electricity from neighboring Balkan systems and sent power west through the submarine link.
Forward markets indicated continued firmness in Hungary, with Hungarian Week 41 power around €202/MWh and Week 42 at around €205/MWh; October was cited at about €204.50/MWh. Forward Hungary-Germany premiums narrowed despite this firmness.
Gas costs were reported as expensive with CEGH around €74.75/MWh and EUA carbon allowances near €86.17/t for the forward context referenced in the report.
The Sept. 29 session therefore reflected a fragmented market structure where transmission capacity increasingly determined relative value across borders rather than a uniform tightening across all hubs cited in the report.