On October 8, Serbia’s day-ahead electricity prices fell while Hungary, Bulgaria and Montenegro moved higher, widening spreads across southeastern Europe. Hungary’s HUPX price rose to €214.28/MWh, and its premium over Germany increased to €74.93/MWh. Germany’s price dropped to €139.35/MWh, but the decline did not translate into comparable relief across the region.
Day-ahead price moves across southeastern Europe
Serbia recorded the largest daily decline among the exchanges covered, with SEEPEX falling €18.60 to €179.39/MWh, down about 9.4%. Serbian power cleared €34.89/MWh below Hungary and €29.41/MWh below Montenegro where transmission capacity was available for cross-border trade. The lower Serbian price did not reflect an export surplus, as Serbia’s reported power balance still showed average imports of 988 MW.
Montenegro increased in the opposite direction, with BELEN rising €11.40 to €208.80/MWh. That level brought Montenegro close to Romanian and Bulgarian prices and narrowed its discount to Hungary to €5.48/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM settled at €209.45/MWh, up €0.70, while Bulgaria’s IBEX increased €9.80 to €208.40/MWh.
Together, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Montenegro formed a tighter price group above €208/MWh. Albania remained the most expensive market in the report at €221.53/MWh, up €9.40, while Greece was the cheapest at €165.25/MWh followed by North Macedonia at €167.78/MWh. The Albania–Greece spread reached €56.28/MWh.
Croatia and Slovenia eased, with CROPEX at €200.81/MWh and BSP at €197.10/MWh, down €3.50 and €5.10 respectively. Italy slipped €1.40 to €218.84/MWh, retaining a premium of about €10/MWh over Montenegro.
Renewables forecasts, imports and forward market signals
Regional fundamentals pointed to stronger renewable availability alongside modestly higher demand in forecasts for average conditions. Forecast average consumption increased by 284 MW to 29,944 MW. Solar generation was forecast at 6,118 MW, up 470 MW, while wind rose 959 MW to 2,319 MW.
The combined wind and solar output was forecast to increase by approximately 1.43 GW, compared with the rise in consumption. Net regional imports nevertheless fell 466 MW to 2,004 MW. Imports through the Austria–Slovakia corridor into Hungary and Slovenia declined 542 MW to 1,528 MW.
The divergence occurred alongside lower imports and a wider Hungarian premium; however, the figures alone did not establish whether reduced transmission availability, generation changes or hourly market conditions drove the outcome.
Forward prices strengthened as well, with Hungarian week-42 power rising €14 to €216/MWh and November increasing €7 to €219.50/MWh. The November Hungary–Germany spread widened by €2 to €42/MWh. Gas prices also moved higher: Austrian CEGH gas reached €78.93/MWh, up €1.10, while November gas rose €2.50 to €79.50/MWh.
EU carbon allowances increased by €0.50 to €85.25/t, keeping fuel and emissions costs elevated for thermal generation.
Implications for cross-border trading conditions
The uneven distribution of price changes left replacement costs elevated for buyers as winter contracting advanced in the reported markets above €208/MWh across several neighbouring exchanges. Serbia’s decline improved its relative position versus nearby pricing levels but did not remove import dependence indicated by average imports of 988 MW.
The source data also noted that daily average spreads do not necessarily translate into executable trading margins because margins depend on hourly prices, available capacity and transaction costs.