Day-ahead electricity prices in Southeast Europe rose sharply for Monday, Oct. 19, with Serbia’s SEEPEX market clearing above €300/MWh. The move followed a rebound in weekday demand alongside weaker renewable forecasts and continued heavy import needs. The resulting regional tightening pushed Serbia further away from western European pricing levels.
SEEPEX was the most expensive market in the region at €300.22/MWh, up €46.3/MWh from Sunday. Hungary’s HUPX followed at €292.39/MWh, up €36.4, while Romania reached €281.07/MWh and Bulgaria €279.48/MWh. Albania settled at €280.60/MWh, North Macedonia at €277.18/MWh and Montenegro at €276.23/MWh, with Croatia at €260.47/MWh and Slovenia at €254.49/MWh.
Greece remained the lowest-priced SEE market at €232.43/MWh, despite a daily increase of €51.7. The repricing was not limited to Serbia, with every major SEE day-ahead market rising after the weekend. Price increases ranged from about €36/MWh in Hungary to nearly €58/MWh in Albania.
Demand recovery tightens the regional balance
The main factor was Monday’s recovery in electricity demand across the combined Hungary and SEE area. Consumption was forecast at 31,426 MW, almost 3 GW higher than Sunday. At the same time, regional net imports increased by 635 MW to 3,525 MW, indicating that additional domestic generation did not fully cover the load increase.
Renewable output provided limited support to the balance. Solar generation was forecast at 3,800 MW, down 677 MW day on day, while wind was expected at 2,412 MW, down 42 MW. Imports from core Central European markets reached 3,431 MW, up 132 MW from Sunday.
Balance figures showed consumption rising from 28,454 MW on Sunday to 31,426 MW on Monday, while imports increased from 2,889 MW to 3,525 MW. Sunday generation stood at 25,565 MW, comprising hydro at 3,236 MW, coal at 6,763 MW and gas at 4,796 MW. Wind was 2,455 MW and solar was 4,478 MW.
Serbia’s premium and intraday price swings
Serbia posted the strongest pricing signal within the region. SEEPEX at €300.22/MWh traded €7.83/MWh above HUPX and around €68/MWh above Greece, while it was almost €92/MWh above Germany. Serbia’s own balance improved versus Sunday but remained linked to the wider regional squeeze.
Serbian consumption increased to 3,871 MW from 3,629 MW, while generation recovered to 2,650 MW from 2,180 MW. Despite the improvement, Serbia stayed a substantial net importer at about 1,221 MW on average.
The hourly pattern also drove trading decisions across generators and storage participants. SEEPEX fell to a daily minimum of €185/MWh around H14 before rising to a maximum of €404/MWh at H19. Peak-load electricity averaged €297.7/MWh and off-peak power averaged €302.7/MWh.
The same regional structure appeared in Montenegro’s market data. BELEN increased by €39.6/MWh to €276.23/MWh, with an hourly maximum reaching €360/MWh and a minimum price still at €210/MWh.
Greece and Albania show wider intraday volatility
Greece displayed one of the largest intraday ranges among the markets covered. HENEX averaged €232.43/MWh, almost €60 below HUPX, but moved between a low of just €2.8/MWh and a high of €375.8/MWh with the maximum arriving at H21.
The Greek peak-load/off-peak structure differed from other hours in the day-ahead curve. Peak-load prices averaged €171.6/MWh compared with off-peak prices averaging €293.2/MWh.
Albania showed an extreme evening signal as well. Its maximum price reached €449/MWh, the highest hourly level among the covered markets, while the daily average stood at €280.60/MWh.
Hungary-Germany spread remains a key cross-border indicator
The Hungary-Germany spread continued to act as a central cross-border constraint signal for day-ahead trading conditions. German day-ahead electricity settled at €208.44/MWh, compared with €292.39/MWh on HUPX, leaving Hungary with a premium of €83.96/MWh. The spread widened by €3.2/MWh from Sunday even with more than 3.4 GW of core imports into the Hungary-SEE region.
Austria traded at €236.72/MWh and Italy at €262.63/MWh, keeping much of SEE above western and central European supply centres on Monday’s session data.
Forward prices indicated expectations that spot extremes would moderate rather than disappear entirely. Hungarian Week 43 power was quoted at €268/MWh and Week 44 at €262.50/MWh, while November settled at €246.50/MWh; the Hungary-Germany forward spread remained wide at €92/MWh for Week 43, €78/MWh for Week 44 and €55/MWh for November.
Gas and carbon costs keep thermal marginal costs elevated
Austrian CEGH gas stood at €89.56/MWh, with November gas quoted at €89/MWh. EUA carbon allowances were priced at €85.41/tonne, while November coal traded at €152.5/tonne. These levels kept thermal generation’s marginal cost environment elevated for Monday’s pricing backdrop.
The Oct. 19 session reflected a SEE structure where weekday demand translated into higher imports and triple-digit premiums over Germany during tighter hours alongside deep intraday swings in renewable-heavy markets.