Southeast European day-ahead power prices rose sharply on 29 October, taking most markets above €300/MWh. Stronger demand, lower wind output and expensive fuel markets tightened the balance ahead of the evening peak.
Day-ahead prices rise across the western Balkans
Serbia’s SEEPEX price climbed €37.4/MWh from the previous session to €330.04/MWh, moving above Hungary and most neighbouring markets. Montenegro rose €46.4/MWh to €312.80/MWh, while North Macedonia gained €41.1/MWh to €325.80/MWh. Albania recorded the region’s highest average, at €366.85/MWh, up €64.8/MWh; Romania settled at €323.76/MWh and Bulgaria at €320.13/MWh.
Hourly data showed that the increase was concentrated around the evening scarcity period rather than spread evenly across the day. On SEEPEX, Serbian peak-load electricity averaged €369.7/MWh, and the highest hourly price reached €500/MWh at H18. The minimum was €205/MWh, leaving little access to genuinely cheap hours during the session.
Montenegro’s BELEN base price reached €312.80/MWh, with peak-load power at €347.4/MWh and a maximum of €555.1/MWh at H18, compared with €400/MWh a day earlier. Albania’s ALPEX average was €366.9/MWh, peak power reached €392.2/MWh and the evening maximum hit €600/MWh at H18. The concentration of the highest prices around H18 in Serbia, Montenegro and Albania reflected a shared tightening as solar generation faded while evening demand remained high.
Regional consumption was forecast to average 34,054 MW, 740 MW above the previous day, while net imports rose 196 MW to 3,886 MW. Solar output was forecast to increase by 360 MW, but wind generation fell by 436 MW, reducing a key source of flexible renewable supply later in the day. The additional solar generation did little to restrain the daily average because much of it arrives in hours when the system is more comfortable, while the drop in wind matters more after solar output fades.
Greece records a deep midday dip and evening peak
Greece remained the clear exception, with HENEX averaging €238.80/MWh. That was almost €86/MWh below Hungary and more than €91/MWh below Serbia. The Greek hourly minimum fell to €32.3/MWh around H10 before prices reached a maximum of €450/MWh at H18.
The Greek price profile showed very low prices around midday followed by an abrupt evening repricing. Greece therefore maintained a large daily discount to the northern Balkans despite facing the same evening tightening.
Central European prices move closer to Southeast Europe
Hungarian HUPX rose €21.2/MWh to €324.58/MWh, while Germany increased by €65.6/MWh to €314.85/MWh. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed to €9.73/MWh, down around €44/MWh in one session. The move largely removed the large Hungarian premium to Germany seen in previous sessions.
Germany’s hourly maximum reached €559.6/MWh and HUPX peaked at €526.8/MWh, with both peaks occurring around the evening ramp. Romania and Bulgaria traded just €0.82/MWh and €4.45/MWh, respectively, below HUPX. Serbia retained a €5.46/MWh premium to Hungary, indicating a slightly tighter balance in Serbia and the western Balkans even after the central European rally.
Italy offered another lower-priced source of supply: its national day-ahead price was €278.47/MWh, around €46/MWh below Hungary and more than €34/MWh below Montenegro. Net electricity entering the wider SEE balance from Italy increased by 147 MW to around 593 MW. This was consistent with the strong economic incentive to move lower-priced Italian electricity towards the tighter Balkan market.
Forward contracts and fuel costs also rise
The forward curve indicated that traders were not treating the day-ahead rally as an isolated event. Hungarian Week 45 power rose €8.5/MWh to €315.50/MWh, Week 46 gained €7.5/MWh to €304.50/MWh, and the November contract increased €13/MWh to €295.50/MWh. Fuel and carbon costs also moved higher.
CEGH gas rose €4.8/MWh to €102.05/MWh, EU carbon allowances increased to €89.1/t, and November coal advanced to €147.5/t. Greece remained the renewable-discount market during solar hours, while Italy provided a lower-priced western supply source. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and North Macedonia converged around €320–330/MWh, while Albania could move sharply above the rest of the region when its balance tightened.
For Serbia and Montenegro, the widening difference between midday and evening prices was the more important signal. Electricity was available in the region, but not always in the right market, across the right border or during the right hour. That imbalance, rather than simple annual energy scarcity, was becoming the defining price signal for Southeast European power trading.