Southeast European day-ahead power prices rose sharply for Monday delivery on 2 November, with Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary and Romania each above €309/MWh. Weekday demand returned as the region’s prices moved further above Germany’s. Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary and Romania led the increase.
Eastern markets lead the regional price rise
Bulgaria’s IBEX posted the highest regional baseload price, at €317.78/MWh, up €55.8/MWh from Sunday. Greece followed at €312.94/MWh, Hungary at €310.29/MWh and Romania at €309.74/MWh. Germany’s price rose by only €3.1/MWh, to €259.01/MWh, widening the Hungary-Germany spread to €51.28/MWh.
The widening gap with Germany was one of the session’s clearest signals. Monday’s rebound was concentrated in central and southeastern Europe, rather than reflecting a comparable increase across the wider continental market.
Regional electricity consumption was forecast to average 34,232 MW, an increase of 3,441 MW from Sunday. Net imports into the Hungary-SEE system, however, fell by 591 MW to 3,844 MW, while imports from the Austria-Slovakia core declined by 901 MW to 3,024 MW. Imports from Italy rose sharply to 928 MW.
With consumption rising substantially while aggregate imports declined, a large part of the additional Monday demand was being met by higher regional generation rather than more external supply. Regional power-balance data put generation at roughly 30.4 GW, compared with 26.4 GW on Sunday. Consumption returned to more than 34 GW.
Hourly price curves on several exchanges showed a synchronised afternoon and evening increase. HUPX reached a Monday maximum of €396.5/MWh, while Romania and Bulgaria each peaked at €395.4/MWh and Greece at €394.6/MWh. Serbia’s maximum was €375/MWh and Montenegro’s was €350/MWh. The alignment of peak hours across interconnected markets points to a regional, rather than purely national, price event.
Serbia and Montenegro trade below the eastern cluster
Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price climbed €31.9/MWh to €293.32/MWh, but remained almost €17/MWh below Hungary and about €24/MWh below Bulgaria. The Serbian market joined the regional rally without fully converging with the higher-priced eastern cluster.
SEEPEX peakload rose to €331.1/MWh, while off-peak power traded at €255.6/MWh. The daily low was €206/MWh and the maximum €375/MWh. Serbia’s seven-day baseload average was €287.7/MWh.
Serbia’s domestic balance did not register a similar increase in demand. Average consumption was about 4,037 MW, nearly unchanged from Sunday’s 4,031 MW, while generation slipped to approximately 2,890 MW from 2,930 MW. The resulting net import requirement increased to roughly 1,148 MW from 1,101 MW a day earlier.
The SEEPEX increase was therefore driven less by a sudden rise in Serbian consumption than by repricing in the surrounding interconnected market and Serbia’s continuing structural exposure to imported electricity.
Montenegro’s BELEN baseload price increased by €19.4/MWh to €287.55/MWh, remaining about €22.7/MWh below Hungary, €25.4/MWh below Greece and more than €30/MWh below Bulgaria. Peak power reached €310.7/MWh, while off-peak traded at €264.4/MWh. The daily minimum was €226/MWh and the maximum €350/MWh.
Montenegrin consumption was broadly stable at around 356 MW, but generation rose to approximately 177 MW from 110 MW on Sunday. The country’s net import position consequently narrowed to around 179 MW from 245 MW. The improved physical balance helped Montenegro maintain a substantial discount to the main eastern SEE markets despite the broader regional price increase.
Albania remains the region’s low-price outlier
Albania moved against the regional rally. ALPEX baseload slipped by €2.6/MWh to €259.96/MWh, around €50/MWh below Hungary and almost €58/MWh below Bulgaria.
Its off-peak price fell to €194.4/MWh, and the daily minimum reached just €89.5/MWh. Peakload was firmer, at €325.5/MWh.
The unusually wide Albanian intraday range adds to the fragmentation of SEE prices: relatively cheap renewable-heavy markets can operate alongside very expensive thermal and import-dependent markets during the same delivery day.
Hungary’s import balance tightens as forward prices rise
Hungary showed one of the strongest signs of tightening conditions. Consumption rose from 4,540 MW on Sunday to 5,202 MW, while generation fell from 3,532 MW to around 3,264 MW. As a result, the country’s net import requirement widened from approximately 1,008 MW to 1,938 MW.
The deterioration in Hungary’s domestic power balance helps explain why HUPX diverged so sharply from Germany. The forward market also remained elevated: Hungarian Week 45 power traded at €327.50/MWh, Week 46 at €333/MWh and November at €304.50/MWh.
The November contract rose €11.5/MWh from the previous session, while Week 46 gained €23/MWh. CEGH gas stood at €105.39/MWh, EU carbon allowances at €89.19/t CO2 and November coal at $148/t, maintaining a high thermal generation cost floor.
The main market signal for 2 November was not simply the post-weekend rise in SEE prices, but the renewed separation between Germany and the Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria-Greece corridor. Serbia and Montenegro remained below that higher-priced eastern cluster, while Albania again emerged as the region’s principal low-price market.
For traders and large consumers, the resulting structure comprised three price tiers: an eastern core above €309/MWh; an intermediate Serbia-Montenegro-North Macedonia corridor around €288-294/MWh; and Albania near €260/MWh.
The return of weekday demand, Hungary’s larger import deficit and the €51/MWh Hungary-Germany spread were the key signals to watch in the next session. If those conditions persisted, the latest rally would represent more than a simple post-weekend normalisation of demand.