Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimates that the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will reach approximately €140.2 million in 2026, as exporters face growing demands to document emissions alongside meeting price and delivery terms. The estimate is a projection, not recorded tax receipts or invoices to Serbian companies, but CBAM-related costs can affect commercial terms and access to EU customers.
CBAM applies to specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, goods matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes accounted for €111.23 billion of extra-EU imports, measured as the border value of the goods, not the value of certificates owed. The total includes imports from exempt source countries; after those origins are subtracted, about €94.74 billion remains potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel made up €60.95 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports covered by the codes, while aluminium accounted for €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin in the overall import total, but its trade is concentrated in corridors connecting producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. The immediate exposure for Serbian exporters is narrower, involving metals, electricity and other covered products shipped from Serbia.
Exposure reaches beyond large producers
The Finance Ministry calculates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Industries connected to those sectors account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, making compliance relevant to wider manufacturing as well as large producers.
Under the ministry’s baseline scenario, economic exposure rises to €161.4 million in 2029. The 2026 estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36. They are projections, not tax receipts or bills issued to companies.
Emissions data will shape contracts
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants hold the formal reporting and certificate obligations. However, related commercial costs can be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts and contract clauses, or forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers.
Negotiations will depend on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere. For exporters, the central commercial question is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain their EU customers.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by 30 September 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract goods and complete verification work. Plants that cannot supply the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route is commercially useful only if emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the importer’s declaration process.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer