In integrated energy markets, infrastructure no longer operates silently in the background. It has become an active source of information, shaping prices, expectations, and investment decisions. Congestion, outages, and flow reversals are not merely technical events; they are signals that reveal where the system is strained and how market participants should respond. In many cases, […]
When infrastructure becomes a market signal Read More »
Oil markets shape South-East Europe less through headline prices and more through the direction, reliability, and cost of physical flows. Regional oil movements across the Adriatic, Mediterranean, and Central European corridors form a background structure that quietly conditions gas availability, electricity pricing, and industrial competitiveness. These flows rarely attract attention unless disrupted, yet their influence
Regional oil flows and indirect impacts Read More »
Energy markets are often portrayed as arenas where prices are discovered on exchanges, driven by transparent bids and offers. In reality, particularly during periods of stress, physical logistics and industrial constraints can dominate price formation, rendering exchange signals secondary. Nowhere is this more evident than in the interaction between oil logistics, refinery operations, and downstream
When logistics and refineries overpower the exchange Read More »
Oil rarely features in discussions about electricity market stability. It is often treated as a parallel energy universe, relevant to transport fuels, geopolitics, and global benchmarks, but largely disconnected from power and gas dynamics. This perception is misleading. In an integrated energy system, oil and refined products act as a silent regulator, shaping costs, flows,
Oil and refined products as a silent regulator Read More »
In a system where natural gas serves as the primary source of flexibility, balancing the gas network is no longer a background operational task. It has become a central determinant of electricity market stability. What once appeared as a technical issue confined to pipeline pressures and storage levels now directly shapes power prices, dispatch decisions,
When gas balancing becomes a power-market problem Read More »
In theory, the spark spread is a straightforward concept. It represents the margin between the price of electricity and the cost of generating it from natural gas, adjusted for efficiency and carbon costs. In practice, particularly in South-East Europe, the spark spread has evolved into something far more complex. It is no longer just a
Spark spread in practice: A SEE focus Read More »
In Europe’s current energy architecture, natural gas occupies a paradoxical position. It is indispensable to system stability, yet it is also one of the system’s greatest sources of fragility. Gas is expected to provide flexibility, absorb renewable variability, and stabilise electricity markets during stress. At the same time, its supply is increasingly exposed to global
Gas as a flexible backbone — and a source of instability Read More »
For much of Europe’s modern energy history, stability was assessed locally. If electricity prices were calm, the power system was considered healthy. If gas storage was full, supply security was assumed. If oil markets were well supplied, energy risk appeared contained. These indicators worked in a world where markets were loosely connected and shocks propagated
Why stability in one market no longer guarantees system stability Read More »
Energy markets are often described as short-memory systems. Prices spike, conditions normalise, and attention moves on. This perception is increasingly misleading. In a tightly coupled energy system, short-term disruptions rarely fade without leaving structural traces. Even when prices retreat and flows stabilise, the system that emerges afterward is subtly but materially different from the one
Short-term disruptions, long-term consequences Read More »
Volatility used to be treated as a market-specific phenomenon. Electricity was volatile because demand had to be balanced in real time. Gas was volatile seasonally, shaped by weather and storage cycles. Oil was volatile episodically, driven by geopolitics and global supply disruptions. These forms of volatility were analysed separately, hedged separately, and largely expected to
Volatility without borders Read More »
