South-East Europe does not sit on the periphery of Europe’s energy system. It sits at its edge in a different sense: the edge where constraints bind first, where volatility appears earliest, and where systemic assumptions are tested under real operating conditions rather than in models. The region is not an exception to Europe’s energy transition. […]
Energy trading was once about exploiting inefficiencies. Price differences across regions, fuels, or time horizons were treated as opportunities for arbitrage. Volatility was episodic, correlations were imperfect, and diversification across markets offered protection. In that world, successful trading meant predicting price direction more accurately than competitors and executing efficiently. In Europe’s current energy system, that
For decades, energy economics was built around capacity. Installed megawatts, pipeline diameters, storage volumes, and reserve margins were treated as the primary indicators of system strength. If capacity exceeded peak demand with an adequate buffer, stability was assumed. Prices might fluctuate, but the system was fundamentally secure. That logic no longer holds. In today’s European
For much of the past two decades, oil was treated as a declining force in Europe’s electricity story. As power generation moved away from fuel oil and toward gas, nuclear, and renewables, oil was conceptually pushed to the margins of energy analysis. It remained central to transport and geopolitics, but increasingly absent from discussions about
For most of Europe’s electricity-market history, natural gas played a supporting role. It was a reliable, dispatchable fuel that complemented baseload generation and provided peak capacity when needed. Its pricing mattered, but it rarely dominated the narrative. Power markets were analysed primarily through generation mix, demand patterns, and network constraints. Gas was a fuel input,
Gas at the centre: How balancing, LNG, and spark spreads now define power prices Read More »
For much of Europe’s post-liberalisation energy history, volatility was understood as a cyclical phenomenon. Prices rose and fell in response to identifiable triggers: cold winters, supply outages, geopolitical events, or demand surges. These episodes were disruptive but temporary. Once the shock passed, markets reverted to a familiar equilibrium, and volatility receded. Risk management, regulation, and
Volatility is no longer cyclical: How shocks now propagate across Europe’s energy system Read More »
For most of the modern history of European energy policy, electricity, natural gas, and oil were treated as adjacent but fundamentally separate domains. They were regulated through different frameworks, traded on different venues, analysed by different expert communities, and governed by distinct political narratives. Electricity was a question of grids, generators, and marginal pricing. Gas
For decades, electricity was treated by industry as a predictable input. Prices fluctuated within narrow bands, supply security was largely taken for granted, and energy strategy focused on efficiency rather than exposure. In southeast Europe, this assumption underpinned the region’s industrial model. Competitive labour, proximity to EU markets and relatively stable power costs supported metals,
In the emerging architecture of Europe’s electricity system, flexibility has become the most valuable attribute a power asset can possess. The ability to ramp output quickly, absorb surplus generation, stabilise frequency, or respond to sudden imbalances now matters more than raw installed capacity. Yet while flexibility has become scarce, it has not become fairly priced.
For most of the past half-century, Europe’s electricity system could be understood through a relatively simple lens. Power was generated close to where it was consumed, national systems were planned around predictable baseload plants, and cross-border flows played a supporting role rather than defining market outcomes. Electricity prices reflected domestic generation costs, demand patterns were
