In Southeast Europe, cross-border power exchanges defined Week 42, as national trading positions changed sharply despite only a marginal shift in the region’s combined net import balance. Net electricity imports across the region edged up 0.4% to 1,194.36 GWh. The small overall change masked substantial differences among national markets. The data are courtesy of Virtu.Energy.
Greek net exports rose 143.88% to 198.49 GWh, while Serbian net imports climbed from 12.16 GWh to 96.58 GWh. Hungary’s net imports grew 34.22% to 279.71 GWh. Bulgaria’s exports fell 97.8% to 3.56 GWh. Romania reduced net imports 59.06% to 77.57 GWh, and Croatia cut its import requirement by 20.65% to 119.57 GWh.
Persistent price spreads underline the value of cross-border capacity
These shifts increasingly shape the commercial value of electricity generation. Generators are exposed not only to conditions in their domestic markets, but also to whether cross-border capacity is available to deliver power to a neighbouring market with higher prices. In Week 42, Greek electricity was considerably cheaper than power in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Hungary, while Greece increased its net exports. Large price spreads nevertheless persisted, indicating that the regional network could not fully arbitrage away the differences.
For traders, persistent spreads create value in forecasting congestion and securing cross-border transmission capacity. For transmission system operators and policymakers, they signal where additional network reinforcement could generate economic benefits. The implications also extend to renewable developers.
Wind or solar projects connected to structurally congested zones may face periods of low local prices even when neighbouring markets are more expensive. Projects with access to stronger interconnection can potentially sell into a much wider regional price pool. This is particularly relevant for the Western Balkans.
Interconnection and storage influence regional market value
Serbia lies between Central Europe, Romania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia. Its long-term electricity-market value depends not only on additions to domestic generation but also on how efficiently power can be exchanged with neighbouring systems. Montenegro has a similar strategic dimension, as its transmission system provides the Western Balkans with a direct connection to Italy through the subsea interconnector.
The growing importance of cross-border trading also strengthens the commercial case for storage. Storage can reduce reliance on constrained interfaces during expensive hours and absorb imports or domestic renewable surpluses when market and network conditions are more favourable. As renewable penetration increases, these relationships will become more dynamic.
Week 42 showed why regional electricity analysis cannot stop at national generation statistics. Serbia’s higher imports, Greece’s stronger exports and Bulgaria’s disappearing surplus were connected parts of the same regional balance. The future SEE electricity market will increasingly be shaped by where and when electricity is produced, and whether transmission capacity can move it to the market willing to pay the highest price.