Forecasts for September 30 delivery pointed to stronger wind and solar output alongside lower demand, reducing the region’s net import requirement. Italy saw only a limited price decline, widening its premium versus neighbouring markets. The day-ahead moves reflected the broader shift in supply and demand expectations across southeastern Europe.
Day-ahead prices and renewable-driven balance
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price fell €24.50 to €145.63/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM dropped €25.60 to €144.31/MWh. Bulgaria recorded the largest absolute decline among the markets covered, with IBEX down €28 to €133.80/MWh. Prices across the region therefore moved lower in line with improved generation expectations.
Forecast average wind generation increased 1,519 MW to 6,206 MW, while solar rose 939 MW to 5,904 MW. Combined output was expected at 12,110 MW, equivalent to about 42% of forecast regional consumption. Demand was forecast to fall 353 MW to 29,112 MW.
The combination of lower consumption and higher renewable production coincided with a drop in projected net imports to just 88 MW, down from 725 MW a day earlier. Despite the near-balanced regional position, cross-border flows remained substantial on individual borders. Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces were forecast at 1,003 MW, down 486 MW.
Net exports towards Italy increased by 124 MW to 1,326 MW. Italy’s price slipped only €1.10 to €201.96/MWh, leaving it €56.33/MWh above Hungary. Compared with roughly €32.93/MWh a day earlier, the widening differential increased the delivery incentive towards Italy, subject to transmission access and delivery costs.
Regional price spreads and forward market levels
Prices continued to diverge across southeastern Europe after the day-ahead declines. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the cheapest market covered at €102.94/MWh, down €7.10 and €42.69/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia’s MEMO fell €24.10 to €108.08/MWh, while Greece’s HENEX declined €12.40 to €109.57/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN dropped €15 to €115.92/MWh, maintaining a discount of about €29.71/MWh to Hungary. Albania’s ALPEX, however, eased only €1.10 to €146.47/MWh, placing it close to the Hungarian price and above several southern neighbours. Slovenia and Croatia stayed more aligned with higher-priced central European markets.
Slovenia’s BSP fell €24.90 to €149.11/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX declined €24.80 to €147.98/MWh. Austria settled at €155.21/MWh and Germany at €140.75/MWh. Hungary’s premium over Germany edged up to €4.88/MWh despite substantial declines in both markets.
Romania traded just €1.32/MWh below Hungary, indicating closer alignment than discounts seen in Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia. Forward quotations weakened but remained above the latest Hungarian spot level for near-term delivery contracts. Hungarian week 41 power fell €7 to €195/MWh, week 42 declined €6 to €199/MWh, and October dropped €7 to €197.50/MWh.
The October quotation stayed about €51.87/MWh above September 30 spot, indicating that improved renewable conditions did not remove the premium in near-term contracts for Hungary’s forward curve. Hungary’s week 41 forward spread over Germany widened by €11 to €39/MWh, while the October spread edged up to €40/MWh.
Gas and carbon allowance moves
Austrian CEGH gas fell €3.10 to €71.64/MWh and the Greek gas quotation declined €1.90 to €59.60/MWh. October gas dropped by €3.50 to €71/MWh, while the fourth-quarter contract held at €74.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances eased by €0.20 to €85.95/t.
The market data showed reduced aggregate import dependence alongside persistent cross-border price gaps that kept transmission access relevant for trading economics across the region.