Electricity prices across southeastern Europe rose sharply for delivery on 15 October, with Hungary and Serbia trading above €250/MWh. The move followed a reversal in Romania’s electricity balance alongside stronger regional demand and lower forecast wind generation. Cross-border trading spreads widened as day-ahead prices diverged between central and eastern markets and Greece.
Day-ahead baseload prices across SEE markets
The Hungarian HUPX day-ahead baseload price increased by €28.9/MWh to €252.81/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX gained €18.1/MWh to €252.74/MWh, leaving the two markets closely aligned. Romania’s OPCOM advanced €26.8/MWh to €248.44/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX rose €18.8/MWh to €233.29/MWh.
Albania recorded the largest daily movement, with ALPEX jumping €113.6/MWh to €249.56/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN increased by €14/MWh to €223.17/MWh, while North Macedonia reached €222.30/MWh.
Romania shifts from net exports to imports
Romania recorded a major change in regional trading structure, moving from a scheduled net export position of 749 MW on 14 October to net imports of 629 MW on 15 October. This represented a 1,378 MW reversal in its daily average electricity balance. Romanian electricity consumption increased from 5,724 MW to 6,096 MW, while forecast domestic generation fell from 6,473 MW to 5,467 MW.
The higher demand and reduced domestic output increased Romania’s reliance on electricity arriving through neighbouring systems, particularly Bulgaria. Scheduled commercial flows from Bulgaria into Romania rose to approximately 1,278 MW from 657 MW the previous day. At the same time, Romanian exports towards Hungary declined from 1,213 MW to 121 MW.
Across Hungary and the wider SEE region, net electricity imports increased by 565 MW to 2,267 MW against forecast consumption of 32,017 MW, up 749 MW day on day. Imports from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and Slovenia rose to 2,661 MW, an increase of 890 MW.
Serbia’s deficit remains while generation increases
Serbia continued operating with a substantial electricity deficit despite higher domestic generation reducing its scheduled import requirement. Forecast consumption increased to 3,975 MW from 3,820 MW the previous day. Domestic generation rose from 2,628 MW to 2,948 MW, lowering net imports from 1,192 MW to 1,027 MW.
Commercial schedules showed Serbia importing an average of approximately 370 MW from Bulgaria, 354 MW from North Macedonia and 293 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia also imported about 214 MW from Romania and 183 MW from Montenegro. In parallel, Serbia was scheduled to export 476 MW towards Hungary.
SEEPEX prices remained among the highest in the region despite stronger generation. SEEPEX reached an hourly maximum of €368.6/MWh at hour 20 and a minimum of €189.9/MWh at hour 14. The nearly €179/MWh intraday difference reflected value for flexible generation and demand response between lower-priced daytime periods and evening peaks.
Montenegro price discount and cross-border flows
Montenegro maintained a smaller net export position as both domestic consumption and generation declined. Average demand fell from 420 MW to 362 MW while generation decreased from 456 MW to 378 MW. This left scheduled net exports of approximately 16 MW compared with 36 MW previously.
BELEN’s baseload price was €223.17/MWh, representing a discount of approximately €29.57/MWh versus Serbia and €29.64/MWh versus Hungary. Schedules indicated average imports of approximately 192 MW from Italy alongside exports of 183 MW towards Serbia.
Greek market weakness widens north-south spreads
Greece remained the region’s principal low-price market with HENEX day-ahead baseload averaging €160.54/MWh despite increasing by €21.6/MWh versus the previous session. The Hungarian premium over Greece widened to €92.28/MWh while the Hungarian-German spread increased to €65.51/MWh compared with approximately €44.9/MWh a day earlier. German baseload prices rose more moderately to €187.30/MWh.
Greek electricity prices reached zero during hour 14 before recovering to an evening maximum of €296.5/MWh. The Greek peak-period average was €97.3/MWh compared with an off-peak average of €223.7/MWh, indicating daytime price weakness in peak pricing hours.
Greece was scheduled to export approximately 1,700 MW on a net basis including substantial flows towards Bulgaria and North Macedonia. Bulgaria moved simultaneously from a net import position of 74 MW into exports of 717 MW supported by an increase in forecast generation.
Renewables outlook shifts: solar up as wind falls
Regional renewable forecasts showed changes in the generation mix for the day-ahead horizon. Average solar production was forecast at 5,932 MW, up 2,631 MW versus the previous day. Wind generation was expected to fall by 1,571 MW to 5,114 MW.
The combined renewable increase provided only a partial offset to changes in demand and other generation sources. Stronger solar availability did not prevent broad increases in day-ahead baseload prices because higher midday renewable output can depress hourly quotations without materially reducing evening scarcity or dispatchable capacity needs.
Forward pricing shows Hungarian premium; carbon and coal ease slightly
Forward markets continued pricing regional risk premiums with a higher Hungarian level relative to Germany for multiple contracts. The Hungarian week 43 contract increased to €270/MWh, compared with €201.50/MWh for the corresponding German contract for a forward premium of €68.50/MWh. Hungary’s November baseload contract stood at €242.50/MWh, versus €195/MWh in Germany.
The Hungarian calendar-year 2027 baseload contract was quoted at €168.50/MWh, compared with Germany’s €145.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances were quoted at approximately €87.14 per tonne, slightly lower on the day, while November coal futures declined to €148 per tonne.
Batteries expand as flexible assets; Romania highlights storage plans
The sharp hourly price differences supported an investment case for flexible electricity assets including batteries that can combine wholesale arbitrage with balancing and ancillary services requirements based on market spreads observed during the session.
Helloeniq Energy plans at least 500 MW of battery storage over the next three years in Romania according to company plans cited in the market update period covered by this report.