During Week 03 (12–18 January 2026), TTF gas prices on the ICE market followed a clear upward trajectory, reflecting increasingly tight market conditions. February 2026 futures opened on Monday, 12 January, at €30.25/MWh, the week’s lowest settlement price, before rising steadily to €31.47/MWh on 13 January (+4.1%) and €31.81/MWh on 14 January (+1.1%). Momentum accelerated on 15 January to €33.16/MWh (+4.2%), culminating on Friday, 16 January, at a peak of €36.88/MWh, marking an 11.2% day-on-day increase. The weekly average price settled at €32.71/MWh, up 16.6% compared with the previous week, highlighting growing bullish sentiment driven by supply concerns and cold-weather demand risks.
Several factors supported the price rise during Week 03: forecasts of colder weather toward late January, relatively low European gas storage levels at around 50%, and additional pressure from U.S. LNG export disruptions, potential supply uncertainties in Iran, and stronger Asian demand triggered by a cold spell. A temporary easing occurred on 15 January after statements from the U.S. president reduced concerns over military tensions in the Middle East.
European gas storage entered 2026 at a weaker level than last year, with sites around 61% full at year-end 2025, compared with 72% at the same point in 2024. While this does not automatically imply market tightness, it increases sensitivity to near-term conditions. A colder-than-normal winter could require higher withdrawals and more substantial refill volumes later in the year, whereas a mild winter would relieve pressure during the summer injection season.
Current market signals indicate a relatively comfortable outlook, supported by robust LNG inflows and lower competition from Asia for spot cargoes. Seasonal spreads remain compressed, suggesting limited concern over summer supply tightness and manageable refill requirements under normal weather conditions.
Overall, the start-of-year storage dynamics suggest a well-balanced but sensitive market. With inventories beginning the year at comparatively lower levels, weather conditions in the first quarter will be critical for determining refill demand, price trends, and storage utilization for the rest of 2026.