In Week 02 of 2026, TTF gas prices in Europe exhibited modest intraday volatility, with the highest settlement occurring on January 7 and generally stabilizing around €28/MWh. February 2026 futures on the ICE market fluctuated between −3.7% and +2.5%, resulting in a weekly average of €28.06/MWh, slightly lower than the previous week (−0.7%).
Prices opened the week with a sharp drop on Monday, January 5, falling −5.5% from the last session of Week 01 to the week’s lowest settlement of €27.399/MWh, which was −3.2% below the level recorded on Monday, December 29. Prices then trended upward over the following days, peaking on Wednesday, January 7, at €28.778/MWh, a 2.5% daily increase and 2.2% above Wednesday, December 31.
Early January 2026 brought unusually low temperatures across Northwest and Central Europe, triggering heating-related spikes in gas demand. The cold spells accelerated storage withdrawals, leaving EU gas inventories at roughly 54.9%, well below last year’s 66.9% at the same time.
Geopolitical tensions added further pressure. Reports emerged that the US is considering military and cyber measures against Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global LNG flows. These risks are especially significant for Europe, which has become increasingly reliant on LNG following a sharp reduction in Russian pipeline deliveries. In 2025, LNG imports surpassed pipeline imports for the first time, highlighting Europe’s growing exposure to global supply shocks.
As of mid-January, the one-month forward TTF contract traded at €32.320/MWh. Meanwhile, Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal exported €7.2 billion ($8.4 billion) worth of LNG to Europe in 2025, according to a report published on January 8, 2026 by German NGO Urgewald. The report comes after EU countries agreed in December 2025 to ban Russian gas imports starting January 1, 2028, with LNG imports scheduled to be prohibited at the start of 2027.
Despite the upcoming ban, the EU remains the largest importer of Russian LNG, with Yamal LNG alone accounting for nearly 15% of total EU LNG imports, according to Urgewald, citing data from Kpler. France was the leading recipient, taking 87 tanker deliveries totaling 6.3 million tonnes (Mt) — 41.7% of Yamal LNG shipments to Europe. TotalEnergies, which owns 20% of Yamal LNG, purchases 4 Mt annually and holds contracts until 2041.
Yamal LNG relies on EU ports and ice-breaking Arc7 LNG tankers, built specifically for Arctic operations. Without access to these ports, shipments would require much longer voyages to Asia. In 2025, 58 ships delivered 4.2 Mt of LNG to Belgium, while 51 ships reached China, delivering 3.6 Mt. France’s Dunkirk and Montoir terminals received 6.3 Mt via 87 shipments, solidifying France as Yamal LNG’s largest European importer.
Shipping logistics are dominated by two European operators. Seapeak, based in the UK and owned by Stonepeak, transported 37.3% of Yamal LNG, while Greece’s Dynagas handled 34.3%. Out of 14 specialized Arc7 ice-breaking LNG tankers, 11 are owned by Seapeak and Dynagas, ensuring efficient Arctic rotations and rapid turnaround to meet European demand.