Southeastern European day-ahead electricity markets diverged sharply on Thursday, October 22, as prices in Hungary and Serbia rose above EUR 260/MWh. Higher demand and a widening regional supply deficit increased import reliance, while prices fell in Greece, Albania, Montenegro and much of the western Balkans.
HUPX’s Hungarian day-ahead baseload price gained EUR 10.8 to EUR 263.21/MWh, the highest among the markets covered. SEEPEX in Serbia jumped EUR 49.2 to EUR 260.63/MWh, nearly eliminating the price gap between the two markets.
Romania’s OPCOM price reached EUR 251.53/MWh and Bulgaria’s IBEX price EUR 250.17/MWh, increases of EUR 5.4 and EUR 5.0, respectively. North Macedonia settled at EUR 249.48/MWh, while Montenegro, Croatia, Albania and Slovenia were at roughly EUR 229–239/MWh.
Greece moved lower, with HENEX down EUR 39.3 to EUR 201.29/MWh and at a EUR 61.92/MWh discount to Hungary. Germany’s price fell more sharply, to EUR 148.61/MWh, leaving Hungary at a EUR 114.60/MWh premium. The divergence pointed to physical power balances and cross-border constraints, rather than fuel prices, as the main drivers of the day’s market.
Demand and imports tighten the regional balance
Combined electricity consumption in Hungary and SEE was forecast at 32,624 MW, up 1,256 MW, or about 4%, from Wednesday. Regional net imports rose by 1,296 MW to 4,713 MW, covering roughly 14% of total consumption. Imports from the Austrian-Slovak core into Hungary and SEE increased by 964 MW to 4,410 MW.
Flows from Italy into the region also rose, by 283 MW to 383 MW. Solar generation was forecast to decline by 571 MW to 3,735 MW, while wind output was expected to increase by 409 MW to 3,100 MW. Total generation was broadly stable at around 27.9 GW, against demand above 32.6 GW, leaving the region increasingly reliant on external supply.
The previous day’s generation mix had already relied heavily on coal and gas, while hydro output had fallen by more than 600 MW. Stronger demand, lower solar availability and limited additional domestic generation contributed to higher prices in northern and central Balkan markets even as German prices fell sharply. The data also showed that insufficient cross-border transmission capacity can prevent full price convergence despite the proximity of lower-priced electricity.
Hungary draws imports while prices separate from Germany
Hungary remained at the centre of the regional imbalance. Consumption rose to 5,235 MW, while domestic generation was about 2,536 MW, leaving average net imports at approximately 2,699 MW. Imports covered more than half of Hungarian electricity demand.
Average commercial flows included about 1,307 MW from Austria into Hungary and 1,822 MW from Slovakia into Hungary. Hungary was also exporting around 614 MW to Romania and 526 MW to Croatia. Average flows from Serbia to Hungary were approximately 642 MW.
The Hungary-Germany spread widened to EUR 114.60/MWh despite large imports from Central Europe. Available interconnection capacity was being heavily used but was not sufficient to remove the scarcity premium in Hungary and neighbouring markets. Germany’s day-ahead price fell by more than EUR 63/MWh while Hungary’s rose, signalling congestion.
Serbian prices rebound as power moves north
Serbia recorded one of the day’s largest price increases. SEEPEX rose from EUR 211.4/MWh to EUR 260.63/MWh, a gain of more than 23%, leaving it just EUR 2.58/MWh below HUPX. Serbian peak power averaged EUR 281.9/MWh, compared with EUR 239.4/MWh off-peak, and the maximum hourly price reached EUR 343.4/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer despite relatively strong domestic generation. Consumption was forecast at about 3,928 MW against generation of approximately 3,220 MW, leaving a net deficit close to 708 MW. The flow pattern was complex: electricity entered Serbia from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro, while significant volumes moved north from Serbia into Hungary.
Average commercial exports from Serbia to Hungary reached about 642 MW. Bulgaria supplied Serbia with roughly 338 MW, and Bosnia supplied around 345 MW. Serbia was therefore both a deficit market and a transit route connecting lower-priced Balkan supply with the Hungarian premium.
Greek exports accompany a lower market price
Greece offered the clearest counterweight to tighter conditions in Hungary. Consumption was broadly unchanged at about 5,282 MW, while generation was forecast at around 6,441 MW, leaving approximately 1,159 MW of net exports. HENEX baseload consequently fell to EUR 201.29/MWh.
The Greek hourly price range was wide: the minimum fell to EUR 1/MWh, while the maximum reached EUR 290/MWh. The very low afternoon price was consistent with a strong solar-driven midday surplus followed by tighter evening conditions. The Greek-Hungarian price difference widened to almost EUR 62/MWh.
The spread represented substantial theoretical arbitrage value, but also showed that transmission constraints across the Balkans continued to limit how much lower-priced southern electricity could reach higher-priced Central European markets.
Prices ease across Montenegro and the western Balkans
Montenegro’s BELEN price fell EUR 15.3 to EUR 238.93/MWh, more than EUR 24/MWh below Hungary. Peak prices averaged EUR 258.5/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of EUR 219.3/MWh. The Montenegrin system was close to balanced, with consumption around 340 MW and generation near 311 MW, resulting in net imports of only about 28 MW.
Montenegro continued to serve as a cross-border transit route. Average flows towards Serbia reached around 174 MW, while flows on the Montenegro-Italy link were predominantly towards Montenegro during the day. Croatia’s price fell to EUR 234.06/MWh and Slovenia’s to EUR 228.63/MWh.
Albania recorded one of the day’s largest declines, dropping EUR 51.6 to EUR 233.99/MWh. The western Balkan markets therefore traded substantially below Serbia and Hungary, despite continued import dependence in several individual systems.
Fuel prices and forward contracts show different signals
The electricity price moves were not matched by a comparable increase in spot gas prices. CEGH Austrian gas fell EUR 1.2 to EUR 89.63/MWh, while the Greek gas indicator dropped EUR 4.6 to EUR 79.19/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged up by EUR 0.3 to EUR 85.91/tonne.
The divergence pointed to demand, renewable output, generation availability and transmission congestion as the main drivers of Thursday’s electricity market, rather than a sudden rise in marginal fuel costs. Forward electricity markets continued to price tight conditions in Hungary. Hungarian Week 44 and Week 45 power were both quoted at around EUR 263/MWh.
The Hungarian November contract rose EUR 6 to EUR 250/MWh, while the calendar contract increased to EUR 170.50/MWh. The forward structure gave little indication that the regional premium was expected to disappear immediately.
Price spreads highlight congestion across the region
The October 22 session saw Germany below EUR 150/MWh, Greece around EUR 201/MWh and Italy around EUR 225/MWh, while Hungary and Serbia were near EUR 260/MWh. At the same time, Central European imports into Hungary and SEE were already above 4.4 GW. The combination increased the value of flexibility and cross-border capacity for traders, generators and storage operators.
Batteries, dispatchable generation, hydro flexibility and transmission rights become more valuable when neighbouring electricity markets can differ by EUR 50–115/MWh during the same delivery day. The common ADEX intraday continuous trading environment for Slovenia, Hungary and Serbia launched this week and should improve operational trading and short-term balancing among the three markets. Better trading infrastructure alone, however, cannot remove physical grid constraints.
The October 22 market showed greater market integration making price signals more visible while also exposing limited transmission capacity for arbitrage. Until additional interconnection, storage and flexible generation are available, periods of high regional demand are likely to continue producing large, commercially important spreads between Central Europe and the Balkans.