South-East Europe’s refining system and Serbia’s turning point under a MOL takeover

South-East European refining is not defined by refinery nameplates alone. It is defined by who controls crude access, who can finance inventories through cycles, and who owns the corridors that physically move oil. In this system, refineries behave less like isolated industrial plants and more like nodes inside a politically and financially constrained logistics network. […]

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Gas under CBAM: Why Serbia’s transition fuel becomes a structural competitiveness risk

When the CBAM lens that has already reshaped thinking on green electricity is applied rigorously to natural gas, the conclusion is stark. Gas does not behave like a neutral transition fuel in a CBAM-constrained export economy. It behaves like a structural risk variable whose price volatility, emissions intensity, and perception by EU buyers increasingly determine

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Serbia as a near-shore green manufacturing hub — what must change before 2030

Serbia still has a narrow but realistic window to position itself as a near-shore green manufacturing hub for EU supply chains. Geography, labour costs, industrial depth, and trade access are not the binding constraints. The binding constraint is energy credibility—specifically, whether Serbia can deliver reliable, scalable, and auditable green electricity to energy-intensive exporters under CBAM

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Industrial PPAs in Serbia: Why price is secondary to shape, certainty and proof

For most of the last decade, power purchase agreements in Serbia were evaluated on a single dominant variable: price. The lowest strike won, and everything else was secondary. Under CBAM, that logic breaks down. For energy-intensive exporters, the commercial value of a PPA is no longer defined by how cheap the electricity looks on paper,

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From MW to TWh: Why Serbia’s energy transition metrics are misleading exporters

Serbia’s energy transition is still described almost entirely in megawatts. New projects are announced in MW, targets are framed in MW, and public debate treats capacity additions as if they were interchangeable with usable energy. For CBAM-exposed exporters, this framing is not just incomplete—it is actively misleading. What determines competitiveness under CBAM is not how

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Wind as Serbia’s CBAM backbone: Why solar-heavy decarbonisation fails industrial buyers

Serbia’s response to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is quietly drifting toward a solar-heavy narrative. This is understandable. Solar is modular, politically visible, quick to announce, and easy to frame in megawatts. But for CBAM-exposed industrial buyers, this approach is structurally flawed. It confuses installed capacity with delivered value and mistakes headline decarbonisation optics

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Grid delays as a hidden CBAM tax: How 18 months can quietly wipe out Serbia’s export margins

In Serbia’s debate on CBAM exposure, grid infrastructure is still treated as a background constraint—important, but secondary. That framing is dangerously wrong. For CBAM-exposed exporters, grid delays function as an unlegislated carbon tax, imposed not by Brussels but by physics, timing, and procurement logic. Unlike formal CBAM charges, this tax does not appear on invoices.

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Aggregation is the missing market: Why Serbia needs an industrial green power aggregator

Serbia’s debate on green electricity and CBAM exposure has so far focused on capacity build-out and contract pricing. Both matter, but neither addresses the structural failure that increasingly determines outcomes for industrial exporters: the absence of aggregation and portfolio-level control. In a power system moving rapidly toward higher shares of intermittent generation, value no longer

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Aggregation and virtual balancing: Why portfolio-level control becomes the decisive value lever in Serbia

As Serbia’s renewable fleet moves from isolated projects toward system-material portfolios, the center of gravity in value creation shifts away from individual plant performance and toward aggregation, virtual balancing, and coordinated dispatch. This layer sits above turbines, panels, and batteries. It is not hardware; it is market access, control logic, and portfolio optimization, and it

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Serbia: Onshore wind platform shows stronger IRR resilience and lower grid stress than solar at scale

A 400–600 MW onshore wind portfolio in Serbia behaves fundamentally differently from a solar-dominated build-out once projects reach system-material size. The difference is not cosmetic or theoretical. It shows up directly in annual generation stability, capture prices, curtailment behavior, and—most importantly for investors—equity IRR resilience under grid stress and delays. Wind’s advantage begins with physics.

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