Coal phase-out as a cross-border shock to power trading dynamics

Coal phase-out in South-East Europe is often discussed as a domestic policy pathway, a sequence of unit closures aligned with decarbonisation targets and compliance timetables. In market reality, it functions as a cross-border shock that propagates through transmission corridors, reorders price hierarchies, and redefines the risk profile of trading books across the region. What matters […]

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SEE’s shrinking dispatchable core and the repricing of regional power risk

South-East Europe is undergoing a structural transformation that is not yet fully reflected in headline adequacy statistics but is already deeply embedded in power prices, forward curves, and congestion behaviour. The region’s dispatchable core—the combination of coal, lignite, hydro flexibility, and synchronous thermal capacity that historically anchored reliability—is shrinking faster than market participants have recalibrated

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Winter stress events and Serbia’s emerging role In continental grid stability

Winter stress events are the moments when power systems reveal their true structure. Peak demand, constrained generation, reduced hydro inflows, and correlated weather patterns compress margins across entire regions, turning theoretical adequacy into a real-time operational test. In recent years, these events have become increasingly continental in nature, affecting Central Europe, South-East Europe, and parts

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Short-term adequacy, long-term transition: Serbia’s strategic power sector dilemma

Serbia’s power system stands at a structurally unusual intersection. In the short term, it enjoys a level of adequacy that is increasingly rare in South-East Europe. In the long term, it faces a transition challenge that is becoming harder precisely because that adequacy reduces urgency. This tension between comfort today and constraint tomorrow defines Serbia’s

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From domestic security to regional shock absorber: Serbia’s quiet role in South-East Europe’s power stability

Serbia’s electricity system has crossed a threshold that is easy to miss if one looks only at domestic balance sheets. What began as a nationally adequate system—capable of meeting its own peak demand with dispatchable capacity—has evolved into a regional shock absorber whose operational behaviour influences outcomes well beyond its borders. This transition has not

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Adequacy without comfort: Serbia’s hidden operational and fuel risks

Serbia’s power system enters the second half of the 2020s with a level of seasonal adequacy that stands out in South-East Europe. Yet this adequacy is often misread as comfort. In reality, the system’s resilience rests on a narrow operational foundation that demands continuous execution discipline. The same factors that underpin Serbia’s stabilising role in

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Serbia versus Romania: How coal retirements are redrawing regional power flows

The divergence between Serbia and Romania in the 2025–2028 period marks one of the most consequential structural shifts in South-East Europe’s power system. While both countries entered the decade with comparable roles as regional anchors—large thermal fleets, significant hydro assets, and strong cross-border interconnections—their trajectories have separated sharply as Romania accelerates coal retirements and Serbia

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Why Serbia’s grid reliability is becoming systemic for the Western Balkans

Serbia’s electricity system is no longer defined primarily by its ability to satisfy domestic demand. Over the last decade, and increasingly visible in ENTSO-E seasonal adequacy assessments, Serbia has evolved into a systemic grid node whose operational stability materially affects outcomes across the Western Balkans and adjacent EU markets. This shift is not the result of a

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Serbia’s power system adequacy as a regional stability anchor in South-East Europe

Serbia enters the 2025–2027 period with a power system profile that is increasingly atypical within South-East Europe. While much of the region is navigating tightening reserve margins, accelerated coal exits, fuel supply volatility, and rising dependence on cross-border imports, Serbia remains one of the few systems whose seasonal adequacy is structurally intact under both reference

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Europe: TTF gas prices rise in Week 03 amid supply concerns and weather risks

During Week 03 (12–18 January 2026), TTF gas prices on the ICE market followed a clear upward trajectory, reflecting increasingly tight market conditions. February 2026 futures opened on Monday, 12 January, at €30.25/MWh, the week’s lowest settlement price, before rising steadily to €31.47/MWh on 13 January (+4.1%) and €31.81/MWh on 14 January (+1.1%). Momentum accelerated

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