Power and metals: Why electricity prices will decide Europe’s new refining industry

Europe’s attempt to rebuild domestic supply chains for lithium, rare earths and battery metals is often described as a race to secure raw materials. Yet the decisive factor shaping where the continent’s new refining plants will actually be built may not be geology at all. It may be electricity. Across lithium conversion facilities, copper refineries, […]

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Industrial electricity procurement under CBAM: Renewable sourcing strategies and competitive positioning in CSEE

The introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is rapidly transforming the strategic landscape for industrial electricity procurement across Central and South-East Europe. While CBAM is frequently discussed as a trade measure targeting the carbon intensity of imported commodities, its deeper impact lies in the way it reshapes electricity sourcing strategies for export-oriented industrial

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Renewables, PPAs and Guarantees of Origin: Serbia’s 1.5 TWh CBAM electricity challenge

Serbia’s quantified exporter green-electricity gap of 0.4–1.4 TWh per year is best treated as a build programme with a proof layer, not as a policy slogan. The number matters because it represents the volume of electricity that CBAM-exposed exporters would need to cover with traceable renewable attributes—in practice, Guarantees of Origin that can be assigned

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Serbia’s CBAM electricity constraint: Company-level green power demand, attribute scarcity and the new logic of exporter-anchored renewables

Serbia’s CBAM exposure is often discussed as if it were a reporting problem that sits inside customs paperwork and corporate sustainability departments. In reality, from 2026 onward, it behaves more like a competitiveness tax on industrial systems that cannot credibly separate themselves from a coal-heavy electricity baseline. That is the Serbian problem in its simplest

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CBAM pressure on Serbia’s electricity exports and RES producers, and the industrial case for owning green power

From 1 January 2026, electricity imported into the EU from Energy Community Contracting Parties is explicitly within CBAM’s scope, creating an administrative and financial layer on cross-border power flows that did not previously exist.  For Serbia, this matters in a very specific way: the CBAM exposure on electricity is not driven by what a single

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CBAM and Serbia’s industrial crossroads: Export exposure, renewable power constraints and the prospect of green metals by 2030

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has begun reshaping the competitive landscape for heavy industry across Europe’s neighboring economies. For Serbia, whose industrial base remains closely integrated with EU manufacturing supply chains, the new carbon border policy introduces both immediate trade risks and long-term structural incentives to modernize production and energy systems. From

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CBAM and the Serbian banking sector: Credit risk transmission, pricing and strategic reallocation

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is not a regulation addressed to banks, yet for the Serbian banking sector it has become a material risk factor that is already influencing credit decisions, portfolio composition, and capital allocation. CBAM operates formally at the EU border, but its economic impact propagates upstream through exporters, industrial clients,

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Scope 3 pressure and outsourcing contract economics in Serbia

The evolution of carbon regulation in Europe does not stop at direct emissions or CBAM-covered products. Increasingly, the decisive competitive pressure is shifting toward Scope 3 emissions—those embedded across the value chain, upstream and downstream of direct production. For Serbia’s outsourcing-driven manufacturing economy, Scope 3 exposure may prove more consequential than direct CBAM liabilities. While

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Carbon cost sensitivity curves for steel, cement and chemicals in Serbia

Carbon pricing is no longer a distant regulatory abstraction for Serbian heavy industry. With the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism moving from reporting to financial enforcement from 2026, carbon cost sensitivity has become a quantifiable variable shaping margins, capital allocation and long-term competitiveness. For steel, cement and chemicals—the three most carbon-exposed industrial pillars in Serbia—the relationship

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CBAM exposure of Serbian energy-intensive industry

Serbia’s industrial repositioning as a near-shore outsourcing hub for European supply chains increasingly intersects with one structural force: carbon regulation. The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) marks a turning point in how carbon intensity translates into trade competitiveness. For Serbian energy-intensive industries—steel, cement, aluminium-linked processing, fertilizers, electricity exports and selected chemicals—CBAM is not

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