What the European gas market means for Serbia-based producers and exporters

The European natural gas market has moved decisively away from its pre-2020 equilibrium. Price formation, supply security, and cost competitiveness are no longer primarily dictated by long-term contracts and pipeline marginal costs. Instead, they are shaped by a volatile interplay of LNG pricing, financial hedging, regulatory overlays, and gas-power coupling. For Serbia-based companies producing gas, […]

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Oil market prices, cost trends and export economics for Serbian producers targeting the EU market

By 2030, Serbian exporters will no longer focus on whether global oil prices are “high” or “low,” but on whether delivered cost structures remain competitive once energy, carbon, logistics, and compliance are fully incorporated into EU-bound exports. Serbia does not compete as an upstream crude producer; it competes as a downstream processor, producing petroleum products,

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Policy without borders: How Montenegro–Italy coupling constrains domestic energy intervention

Electricity market coupling is often discussed in technical or commercial terms, but its most profound effects are political. By linking Montenegro’s market directly to Italy’s, coupling effectively removes the border as a buffer between domestic energy policy and European price formation. This fundamentally constrains the scope for unilateral intervention in the power sector. Before coupling,

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Fragmented convergence: Why Southeast Europe will not integrate into one electricity market

For much of the past decade, the dominant assumption shaping policy and market design in Southeast Europe has been that electricity market integration would follow a linear path. National markets would first converge regionally, harmonising rules and price formation across the Balkans, and only then gradually integrate into the wider European internal electricity market. The

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Storage and balancing economics in an Adriatic-linked SEE market, 2030–2040

The Montenegro–Italy electricity market coupling does more than integrate two markets. It reshapes the economics of flexibility across Southeast Europe, particularly in relation to storage and balancing. As renewable penetration accelerates and price volatility shifts from energy scarcity to flexibility scarcity, the Adriatic corridor emerges as a focal point for storage value creation. Italy’s power

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Hydro as a European flexibility asset: Montenegro’s reservoirs in a coupled Italy–SEE system

For decades, Montenegro’s hydroelectric system has been perceived primarily through a regional lens. Its reservoirs and run-of-river plants were valued as instruments of domestic supply security and, at most, as balancing assets for neighbouring Balkan systems. Market coupling with Italy fundamentally redefines this role. Montenegro’s hydro fleet is no longer optimised against a regional Balkan

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From arbitrage to algorithms: How market coupling reshapes SEE power desks

The transition from explicit capacity allocation to market coupling between Montenegro and Italy marks a decisive shift in how electricity trading value is created in Southeast Europe. It represents the end of a trading model built around physical control of interconnection capacity and the rise of one centred on data, forecasting and algorithmic optimisation. For

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The Adriatic price axis: How Montenegro–Italy coupling creates a new European electricity corridor

The coupling of Montenegro’s electricity market with Italy’s marks the emergence of a new structural feature in Europe’s power market architecture: an Adriatic price axis linking a Mediterranean EU core market directly with the Western Balkans. This development does not simply improve cross-border trade efficiency. It reshapes how prices form, how risk propagates, and how

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SEE oil forward curve to 2030: Country overlays, execution risk, and pricingregimes in a constrained regional market

By 2030, the southeast European oil forward curve can no longer be understood as a single regional construct. What may appear as a unified market anchored to Brent is, in reality, a layered system of country-specific execution curves, each responding differently to base, tight, and stress conditions. Flat prices remain a reference point, but they

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SEE oil trading outlook 2026–2030: Flows, spreads, freight,and optionality in a constrained Europe

Between 2026 and 2030, Southeast Europe’s oil market will be shaped less by broad price direction and more by structural constraints on flows, freight, and optionality. The region is evolving from a peripheral arbitrage zone into a structurally constrained end-market, with significant implications for spreads and risk management. Sanctions enforcement will continue to fragment liquidity.

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