By 2025 oil continues to shape key parts of South-East Europe’s energy and economic landscape. It remains critical for transport fuels, industrial feedstocks, backup power generation in price spikes and inflation dynamics. Unlike electricity and gas, oil systems in the region are almost entirely net import dependent, but the presence or absence of refining capacity, maritime access and storage alters both trade flows and price exposure. Across Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia and Greece, oil product import volumes, refining output and price trends tell a consistent story: refining capacity and logistics infrastructure drive resilience, while pure importers experience higher price volatility and concentrated risk.
Slovenia’s oil demand is relatively modest but structurally import dependent. In 2025 national petrol, diesel and jet fuel consumption sits around 1.1–1.3 million tonnes per year. Without domestic crude production or refinery capacity, Slovenia sources almost all products via pipeline and road imports from Croatia and Italy. The absence of domestic refining means Slovenia’s oil price exposure tracks global Brent crude and European refining margins. In early 2025 benchmark Brent hovered in the 80–90 dollars per barrel range, with wholesale diesel prices in Slovenia typically trading in a range equivalent to 1.00–1.20 euros per litre at the pump, reflecting global refining margin compression and regional logistics costs. Slovenia’s oil position is defined not by energy scarcity but by price pass-through from global markets.
Croatia combines domestic infrastructure with import flexibility. With annual oil product demand around 3.2–3.6 million tonnes, Croatia’s refining system—anchored historically by the Rijeka and Sisak facilities, though restructured in recent years—still processes several million tonnes of crude annually to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. In 2025 the effective refining throughput is about 2.7–3.0 million tonnes per year, placing Croatia as a meaningful regional refinery node. Croatia also imports crude through the Adriatic system and utilises its maritime terminals to handle seaborne shipments. Diesel wholesale prices in Croatia in 2025 typically range from 0.92 to 1.15 euros per litre at the rack, lower than some inland markets because of port access and economies of scale, while petrol prices sit around 1.05–1.30 euros per litre retail. Croatia’s refining output also supports modest product exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia, usually in the 0.2–0.4 million tonne per year range, often oriented to diesel and aviation turbine fuel.
Hungary is the largest refining and product exporter in the subregion. With domestic oil product consumption of about 7.8–8.5 million tonnes annually, Hungary’s MOL refiners process roughly 9–10 million tonnes of crude per year, allowing export of surplus petrol, diesel and middle distillates into Slovakia, Austria, Croatia and parts of Ukraine’s western markets. Hungarian refiners strategically position themselves on Black Sea and Adriatic crude feedstocks, and their product exports in 2025 sit around 1.4–1.8 million tonnes, with diesel typically dominating. Diesel rack prices in Hungary in mid-2025 have ranged around 0.88–1.10 euros per litre wholesale, with consumer pump prices around 1.05–1.35 euros per litre, below some peripheral Balkan markets, reflecting refining scale and distribution efficiency.
Serbia has a domestic refining anchor that moderates pure import exposure, but it still relies heavily on external supply of crude. Annual demand in Serbia in 2025 is approximately 3.6–4.1 million tonnes of oil products, of which the Pančevo refinery processes about 2.8–3.0 million tonnes, leaving the remainder to be imported as finished products. This domestic refining capacity reduces acute scarcity risk but does not eliminate price volatility; Serbian petrol and diesel pump prices in 2025 typically sit in the 1.10–1.40 euros per litre range, influenced by global Brent movements, regional logistics margins and excise tax policy. Product imports, primarily diesel, account for around 0.7–1.0 million tonnes per year and are sourced from Croatia, Hungary and occasionally Greece depending on seasonal arbitrage.
Romania’s oil position is structurally stronger than most Southeast European peers because of domestic production and refining. Consumption in 2025 runs near 10–11 million tonnes per year, and Romanian refineries are processing roughly 8–9 million tonnes of crude annually. Domestic crude output, although declining from its mid-2010s peak, still contributes several tenths of a million tonnes to the feedstock pool, and the refining surplus often enables exports of about 0.8–1.2 million tonnes per year of refined products—predominantly diesel. Romanian retail prices for diesel and petrol in 2025 typically range between 1.00 and 1.30 euros per litre, reflecting a smaller logistics margin, domestic refining scale and occasional export orientation when global spreads permit.
Bulgaria’s refining sector remains an important oil product supplier to the Western Balkans. With annual domestic demand near 4.5–5.0 million tonnes, Bulgaria processes about 4.0–4.3 million tonnes of crude in its refineries in 2025, producing gasoline, diesel and heating oil to cover domestic load and supply neighbouring markets. Exports of refined products in 2024–2025 are in the 0.3–0.6 million tonne per year range, primarily diesel into Serbia, North Macedonia and Bosnia, depending on price spreads and logistics costs. Bulgarian retail price levels for oil products in 2025 have typically sat in line with regional norms—around 1.05–1.35 euros per litre for diesel and petrol—although short periods of volatility occurred when crude prices spiked or refining margins widened.
Bosnia and Herzegovina remains heavily reliant on external product imports. Annual demand sits around 1.2–1.6 million tonnes, driven by transport and industrial needs. With limited refining infrastructure in effective operation, most oil products are imported from Croatia, Serbia or Hungary, often in the form of diesel and gasoline bulk shipments. In 2025 product imports amount to roughly 1.1–1.4 million tonnes annually, covering nearly all domestic needs. Wholesale prices for imported diesel before excise in Bosnia typically range from 0.95 to 1.20 euros per litre, with retail figures often running above 1.20 euros per litre due to distribution costs and lower competitive pressure.
Montenegro is small on an absolute scale but fully dependent on imports for its oil product needs. Annual consumption in 2025 is under 0.4 million tonnes. With no functional refinery, Montenegro sources diesel, petrol and LPG primarily through Croatia and, at times, direct maritime shipments. Retail pump prices are structurally high relative to neighbours, often in the 1.20–1.55 euros per litre range, due to small market scale, higher unit logistics costs and tax structures.
Albania’s oil sector continues to depend on imports of refined products, despite having crude production history. Domestic annual demand is around 1.5–1.8 million tonnes, and product imports approximate that volume because refining activity is limited and unstable. Albania sources refined products primarily via Greece, Italy and Croatia, with annual imports near 1.4–1.7 million tonnes in 2025. Retail diesel and petrol prices at the pump have generally ranged between 1.15 and 1.45 euros per litre, reflecting marine freight costs, import margins and excise tax levels.
North Macedonia’s oil position is similar: consumption around 1.7–2.0 million tonnes annually, all covered by imported products. In 2025 the country imports in the order of 1.6–1.9 million tonnes of diesel, petrol and LPG, mainly via Bulgaria and Greece. North Macedonian pump prices for diesel commonly range from 1.20 to 1.50 euros per litre, influenced by logistics margins, tax structure and the lack of a domestic refining base.
Greece remains one of the most significant oil markets in the region, with annual consumption in 2025 around 10–11 million tonnes. Greece’s refining capacity, the existence of the Aspropyrgos and Thessaloniki refineries and access to maritime crude import routes give it one of the strongest product security positions in South-East Europe. Refinery throughput in 2025 is near 8.5–9.2 million tonnes, with surplus products exported in the 0.6–1.0 million tonne per year range when global margins permit. Greek retail fuel prices often track European benchmarks closely but benefit from scale; average diesel prices at the pump in 2025 have commonly settled in the 1.05–1.30 euros per litre range despite global crude volatility, due to robust throughput and competitive inland distribution.
Across South-East Europe in 2025 the regional oil trade picture is therefore defined less by scarcity and more by structure and price exposure. Net import dependence is near universal, but refining and logistics infrastructure create differentiated risk exposures. Countries with large and active refineries—Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece—carry the lowest product scarcity risk and the greatest ability to moderate price spikes through supply diversification and export arbitrage. They also shape product flows for smaller neighbours, who in turn experience structural price premiums and volatility when global benchmarks shift.
Wholesale product price trends in 2025 primarily reflect global Brent crude moves, European refining margins and regional logistics costs. Over the first three quarters of the year Brent ranged in the mid-80s to mid-90s dollars per barrel, tightening around geopolitical events or refinery turnaround seasons, and easing when global inventories rose. Refining margins varied by product and month, but in Southeast Europe they typically hovered in the 5–15 dollars per barrel range for diesel benchmarks, with gasoline marginally lower. These benchmark shifts translated into weekly retail price movements of several euro-cents per litre, making oil product pricing a persistent inflation factor for transport costs, industrial margins and household budgets.
Volumes tell a parallel story. The region’s combined oil product import requirement in 2025 is in the order of 30–32 million tonnes, of which a little over half is domestically refined before meeting consumption or being exported. Net exports from major refining countries add up to around 3–5 million tonnes per year when conditions permit, with Hungary usually the largest exporter, followed by Romania, Greece and Bulgaria. These export flows help stabilise markets and provide liquidity in regional trading corridors, but they do not eliminate the underlying price exposure that comes from global crude markets.
For investors and policymakers, the oil picture in 2025 has clear implications. Countries with refining capacity and maritime access have structural advantages in price exposure, market negotiation and fiscal revenue. Pure importers require robust logistics resilience, stock management and fiscal buffers to protect consumers and businesses from global price volatility. Across the region, oil remains a commodity whose risks are priced externally but whose impacts are felt internally—on inflation, transport costs, industrial competitiveness and fiscal stability. As the transition to cleaner energy accelerates, oil’s direct share of final energy demand may fall over the next decade, but in 2025 it still efficiently transmits global price shocks into regional economies and remains a critical component of South-East Europe’s energy and trade profile.
Elevated by virtu.energy