Plans to reinforce gas flows from southern Europe toward Ukraine are once again slipping into uncertainty, as upcoming capacity auctions along the Vertical Gas Corridor may attract no bidders. Officials are warning that market interest could once more evaporate, echoing the failure seen late last year and reopening questions about the project’s overall commercial viability.
According to experts, a toxic mix of unresolved regulatory obstacles, inconsistent signals from Brussels and a lack of long-term investor clarity is eroding confidence. Although the corridor is framed as a strategic route for transporting US liquefied natural gas northwards, authorities admit that the project has not yet overcome key structural and regulatory barriers.
At the core of the deadlock lies the stance of the European Commission. While the corridor is widely viewed as geopolitically important, Commission officials are challenging whether the capacity products proposed by transmission system operators in Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine are fully compatible with EU market rules. Ministry sources suggest that external diplomatic engagement, possibly involving the United States, may be needed to unblock the process.
Uncertainty is currently concentrated around three different capacity products developed along the route. One allows gas deliveries to Ukraine through the Revythoussa LNG terminal and the Alexandroupoli floating storage and regasification unit. Another focuses on LNG volumes entering through Alexandroupoli and moving into Bulgaria via the IGB interconnector. The third links the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline in Komotini with the IGB, enabling flows that also include gas from Azerbaijan.
Officials highlight a growing contradiction inside EU energy policy. Last year, the Commission committed to large-scale purchases of US energy later this decade, yet its present regulatory hesitation is now delaying infrastructure built specifically to allow those imports to reach eastern and northern Europe.
The seriousness of the problem became clear in December, when expanded capacity products were launched but drew no demand. Market participants reportedly withdrew after late-stage regulatory doubts surfaced, particularly over whether shippers could reserve capacity across the entire corridor, from Revythoussa to Ukraine, under a single unified product. Without firm clarity on this issue, confidence ahead of future auctions remains fragile.