Southeast European day-ahead power prices surged on 28 October, with Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Albania and Serbia trading around or above €300/MWh. Weaker renewable availability and reduced imports tightened supply, while regional demand remained broadly unchanged. Romania posted the highest baseload price at €311.38/MWh, up €55.90 from the previous session.
Bulgaria’s baseload price reached €305.56/MWh, followed by Hungary at €303.34/MWh and Albania at €302.05/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX price climbed €51.00 to €292.65/MWh. The breadth of the increase reflected tighter supply rather than a substantial rise in demand.
Forecast electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe was 33,331 MW, just 44 MW higher day on day. Forecast solar availability fell by 862 MW, while wind availability declined by a further 1,355 MW, removing more than 2.2 GW of renewable supply from the regional balance. Total net imports into the region slipped to 3,941 MW.
Core inflows from Austria and Slovakia fell by 725 MW to 3,625 MW. With consumption little changed, the region had less low-cost generation and external supply available to meet demand. Wednesday’s trading therefore showed how a reduced supply of inexpensive megawatt-hours can tighten the market even without a material increase in electricity use.
Higher prices extend into Hungarian forward products
Hungary saw one of the steepest day-ahead increases, with HUPX rising €62.00 to €303.34/MWh. Germany’s price also climbed, by €94.10 to €249.21/MWh. As a result, Hungary’s premium over Germany narrowed to €54.13/MWh from more than €86/MWh a day earlier.
Higher prices were also evident beyond the immediate day-ahead session. Hungarian Week 45 power was assessed at €307/MWh, Week 46 at €297/MWh and November at €282.50/MWh. Week 46 gained €26/MWh in one day, with traders pricing regional tightness beyond Wednesday’s trading session.
Fuel markets showed little sign of a sudden increase in generation costs. Austrian CEGH gas eased slightly to €97.24/MWh, EU carbon allowances were broadly stable at €88.05/t, and November coal fell. The electricity-market pressure coincided with changes in renewable output, generation availability and cross-border flows rather than a new fuel-price increase.
Serbian prices and import dependence rise
In Serbia, SEEPEX baseload settled at €292.65/MWh, a €51/MWh increase in one session. Peak power reached €313/MWh, and the hourly maximum was €400/MWh. The minimum price was still €189/MWh, showing that elevated prices extended across the daily curve rather than being driven by only one or two extreme hours.
Serbia remained around €10.69/MWh cheaper than Hungary, but the relatively narrow gap reflected the market’s close alignment with Central and Eastern Europe’s tighter conditions. Serbia was a substantial net importer, with average net imports of roughly 1,192 MW, compared with about 915 MW a day earlier. Regional flow data showed imports from several neighbouring systems and only limited northbound flows towards Hungary.
Serbia’s ability to remain below HUPX-level prices depended increasingly on available cross-border capacity and supply from neighbouring markets. When those buffers tighten at the same time, SEEPEX can move rapidly towards the Hungarian and Romanian price range.
Montenegro’s role as a regional transit route
Montenegro remained among the region’s cheaper markets despite a marked increase. BELEN rose €35.90 to €266.41/MWh, almost €37/MWh below Hungary and about €26/MWh below Serbia. Its peak price was €277.10/MWh, while the daily maximum reached €400/MWh.
Montenegro was close to physically balanced overall, although gross flows were much larger than its net position suggests. It was drawing electricity from the western side of the system, including Italy, while sending substantial volumes towards Serbia and other Western Balkan markets. This made the country a cross-border transit and arbitrage corridor linking Italy, the Adriatic and the tighter Western Balkan price zone.
That role will become more important when TPP Pljevlja begins its planned maintenance outage on 31 October. The outage will reduce Montenegro’s domestic thermal buffer while regional prices are already elevated.
Greece remains below the regional price spike
Greece was the main exception to the wider price increase. HENEX rose only €7.70 to €232.57/MWh, leaving the Greek price roughly €71/MWh below Hungary, €79/MWh below Romania and €60/MWh below Serbia.
Greece exported around 2,010 MW on average, up from 1,400 MW the previous day, with particularly strong flows towards Bulgaria. Generation was well above domestic consumption, allowing lower-priced Greek electricity to flow north into the tighter Bulgarian and wider Balkan markets. The region consequently had Greece as a lower-priced exporting zone, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro in the middle, and Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Albania trading near or above €300/MWh.
Regional figures put that divide in context: Hungary and Southeast Europe were still importing almost 4 GW on average, despite regional generation of about 29.4 GW against consumption above 33.3 GW. The 28 October session showed that a major demand increase was not necessary for another sharp price move. A simultaneous fall in wind and solar output, combined with several hundred megawatts less import capacity from Central Europe, could push much of Southeast Europe towards €300–400/MWh.
Relevant factors include renewable forecasts, Austria–Slovakia import flows, Serbia’s import dependence, Greek export availability and Montenegro’s thermal availability after the Pljevlja outage begins.