Day-ahead power prices rose sharply across most of Southeast Europe on Monday, October 26, as weekday demand returned after the weekend. Serbia recorded the region’s highest price, at EUR 285.08/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX price gained EUR 21.4/MWh from Sunday, edging above North Macedonia at EUR 284.87/MWh. Romania rose by almost EUR 40 to EUR 271.92/MWh, while Hungary reached EUR 267.40/MWh, Bulgaria EUR 263.39/MWh and Greece EUR 258.52/MWh. Croatia, Austria, Italy, Slovenia and Montenegro were grouped at around EUR 238–243/MWh.
Day-on-day gains included EUR 39.2/MWh in Croatia, EUR 39.9/MWh in Romania, EUR 39.1/MWh in Slovenia, EUR 33.8/MWh in Bulgaria and EUR 31.1/MWh in Greece. Hungary’s increase was smaller, at EUR 8.1/MWh, while Montenegro rose EUR 19/MWh to EUR 238.55/MWh.
Demand and generation rose across the region
The main fundamental change was the return of working-day demand after the weekend. Combined consumption in Hungary and the monitored Southeast European markets climbed to 31,816 MW, an increase of 3,174 MW, or about 11%, from Sunday. Regional net imports fell by 336 MW to 4,648 MW, while imports from Austria and Slovakia eased slightly to 4,632 MW.
Regional generation increased from 23,657 MW on Sunday to 27,168 MW on Monday, a rise of about 3.5 GW that more than matched the increase in consumption. The region therefore consumed substantially more electricity without requiring higher net imports to cover the rise. The price move was not explained simply by a deterioration in the aggregate supply-demand balance.
Instead, the market data pointed to the return of weekday peak-load pricing, alongside ongoing cross-border constraints and expensive marginal generation in the eastern part of the interconnected market. These conditions accompanied the higher prices across much of the region.
Serbia records the region’s highest price
SEEPEX’s EUR 285.08/MWh base-load price was about EUR 18/MWh above Hungary, EUR 22/MWh above Bulgaria, EUR 27/MWh above Greece and approximately EUR 44/MWh above Italy’s national price. North Macedonia’s base-load price was almost identical, at EUR 284.87/MWh. Together, the two markets formed a high-price pocket above the larger Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian markets.
Prices in Serbia remained high throughout the day. The minimum was EUR 220/MWh, and the maximum reached EUR 375.1/MWh in hour 18. Peak-load power averaged EUR 283.7/MWh and off-peak electricity EUR 286.5/MWh, so the premium was not limited to a few evening hours.
The Serbian premium is relevant to traders because a market priced materially above Hungary and the western Balkans can offer cross-border trading opportunities when transmission capacity is available. It also increases physical supply costs for Serbian utilities, suppliers and industrial consumers exposed to day-ahead procurement.
German prices rebound as east-west differences persist
German day-ahead power prices rose from EUR 13.7/MWh on Sunday to EUR 116.57/MWh on Monday, an increase of almost EUR 103/MWh. Hungary nevertheless remained EUR 150.83/MWh above Germany. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed sharply from around EUR 245.6/MWh a day earlier, largely because German prices recovered rather than because Central and Southeast European prices fell.
The price gap remained a clear sign of regional market fragmentation. Hungary continued to serve as a major transit market between cheaper Central European supply and tighter eastern markets. Commercial schedules showed substantial imports into Hungary from Austria and Slovakia, alongside exports east towards Romania.
Hungary-to-Romania base-load flows reached about 1,684 MW, including around 1,920 MW during peak hours. Cheaper German generation did not automatically result in equally low Southeast European prices, as cross-border capacity and the configuration of regional flows affected how much western supply could reach deficit markets.
Bulgaria shifts to net imports while Albania moves lower
Bulgaria’s consumption rose to 4,219 MW, while generation stood at 3,931 MW. The country shifted to net imports of about 288 MW, compared with net exports of 217 MW on Sunday. The IBEX price rose to EUR 263.39/MWh, reinforcing the higher-price structure extending from Romania and Bulgaria through Serbia and North Macedonia.
Bulgaria is an important generation and transit hub for the southern Balkans. Its shift from export availability to import demand removed supply that might otherwise have helped cap prices elsewhere in the region.
Albania moved in the opposite direction, with ALPEX falling by EUR 105.1/MWh from Sunday to EUR 214.76/MWh. The price left Albania more than EUR 70/MWh below Serbia. Peak electricity averaged EUR 213.4/MWh and off-peak power EUR 216.1/MWh, with prices ranging from EUR 131/MWh to EUR 325/MWh.
The divergence was visible across the Albanian price curve. The sharp fall amid a broadly rising regional market showed the sensitivity of individual Balkan bidding zones to local balances, cross-border schedules and available transmission capacity.
Forward prices and fuel costs remain elevated
The Hungarian forward curve also strengthened. Week 44 power rose EUR 14/MWh to EUR 279.50/MWh, while week 45 gained EUR 23/MWh to EUR 294.50/MWh. November power increased EUR 17/MWh to EUR 272.50/MWh.
The supporting fuel complex remained expensive: CEGH gas stood at EUR 95.11/MWh, November gas at EUR 95.50/MWh and EU carbon allowances at EUR 86.26/t. Coal forwards also moved higher. The forward-price increases indicated that the market was not treating Monday’s rise solely as a one-day rebound driven by the return of weekday demand.
Serbia at EUR 285/MWh, North Macedonia at a similar level and Hungary still EUR 151/MWh above Germany underscored the importance of cross-border constraints and regional marginal pricing alongside the broader European supply picture. Access to transmission capacity, generation availability and hourly positioning between Central Europe and the Balkans remained the main drivers of short-term Southeast European trading economics while the price spreads persisted.