Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead benchmark for Saturday delivery fell by €58.94/MWh to €181.02/MWh as weekend demand eased. Prices in Romania, Bulgaria and Montenegro remained above €230/MWh, keeping regional markets divided. North Macedonia and Slovenia saw lower levels, with North Macedonia at €192.91/MWh and Slovenia averaging around €203.22/MWh.
Day-ahead price gap widens between Serbia and Romania
Romania’s OPCOM day-ahead price decreased by €21.32/MWh to €233.88/MWh. Bulgaria stayed near €233.40/MWh, while Montenegro increased to €232.04/MWh. Despite lower weekend consumption benefiting both markets, the spread between Serbia and Romania widened to almost €53/MWh. The divergence was attributed to a structural supply problem rather than demand alone.
Romania is operating without output from its two Cernavodă nuclear reactors, removing approximately 1.36 GW of firm generation. In Bulgaria, Kozloduy unit 6, rated at about 1 GW, entered scheduled maintenance on October 8. Bulgaria’s unit 5 remains exposed to low Danube water levels. Together, these constraints have reduced dispatchable generation when hydro availability and wind output have been unreliable.
Romanian solar output reduces midday imports but evening prices stay volatile
Romanian operational data showed consumption falling to approximately 4.14 GW around midday, while domestic generation reached 3.73 GW. Solar output contributed roughly 2.05 GW, reducing net imports to about 405 MW. Earlier in the morning, before photovoltaic production increased, Romanian imports had exceeded 1.5 GW. The session also showed that midday import reductions did not remove later scarcity.
Romanian day-ahead prices ranged from around €138/MWh to €342/MWh. Serbia recorded a similarly wide hourly range from approximately €132/MWh to €300/MWh. Bulgaria and Montenegro reached around €336/MWh and €330/MWh, respectively. These price swings continued to align with the commercial case for batteries, pumped hydro and flexible generation as weekend demand reduced average prices.
Tighter cross-border capacity keeps Turkey cheaper than eastern SEE markets
Turkey’s day-ahead electricity averaged approximately €56/MWh, leaving it around €177/MWh below Bulgaria. The gap reflected limitations of existing cross-border transmission capacity, despite additional low-cost electricity available close to Southeast Europe. Restricted transfer capability prevented the price difference from being eliminated across the region. Italy remained near €220/MWh, while Austria increased to about €207/MWh.
The latest session highlighted the role of country-specific hedging for market participants trading across SEE markets. A supplier hedged against Serbian or German power prices could still face procurement exposure in Romania or Bulgaria when transmission constraints prevent price convergence. For lenders, the same conditions increase the value of projects offering dispatchable capacity, storage and secure grid access. Saturday’s correction also showed that lower demand can quickly reduce prices where supply is adequate, while Romania and Bulgaria remain exposed to reduced firm generation that neighbouring markets cannot fully replace.