Serbia closed the previous year with one of the most striking statistics in its recent energy history: 48 percent of all electricity generated came from renewable sources, according to government data. At first glance, the figure appears to position Serbia among Europe’s more advanced energy-transition performers, surpassing several EU members in renewable penetration. With hydropower providing the backbone of this output and wind and solar contributing steadily rising shares, the country has reached a symbolic threshold that has sparked renewed debate about the speed, structure and future direction of its transition.
Yet beneath the headline number lies a far more complex reality. Serbia’s renewable achievement is genuine but fragile; substantial but uneven; and encouraging yet heavily dependent on hydrological luck. As analyses from serbia-energy.euconsistently underscore, Serbia’s energy transition is not a linear success story but a landscape shaped by climate volatility, institutional inertia, infrastructure bottlenecks and the unfinished transformation of its state energy institutions.
To understand what the 48 percent achievement really means, one must first unpack its composition. Hydropower — particularly from the massive Djerdap complex and the Drina-Limske plants — remains the dominant contributor. In good rainfall years, these facilities produce vast quantities of low-cost electricity, balancing the system and reducing the need for both coal and imports. Last year, hydrology worked largely in Serbia’s favor, allowing the system operator to rely on hydro flexibility for daily balancing and seasonal variation.
Wind power constituted the second-largest renewable source. Over the past decade, Serbia has installed more than 500 MW of wind capacity, primarily in the Vojvodina region, with several new projects entering operation or nearing completion. Wind now provides a meaningful share of winter and night-time generation, improving supply diversity and reducing strain on coal units.
Solar remains the smallest portion of the renewable mix but is growing rapidly. Commercial-scale photovoltaic projects have begun to expand beyond experimental and demonstration phases, while rooftop solar installations have jumped due to supportive policy frameworks and falling equipment costs. Though solar contribution remains modest in absolute terms, its trajectory suggests a future in which decentralized solar becomes an increasingly important stabilizing factor, particularly in summer peaks.
On paper, these dynamics paint a promising picture. But as serbia-energy.eu reports repeatedly, Serbia’s renewable composition remains structurally imbalanced. The system still relies excessively on hydropower, a resource increasingly vulnerable to climate patterns. A single dry year can erase the gains of multiple wet seasons. The projected 25 percent decline in hydro output for 2025, for example, demonstrates how quickly renewable dominance can evaporate when water levels drop. Hydropower’s strength — its flexibility — becomes a weakness when reservoirs are depleted and inflows shrink.
Wind and solar, while growing, are not yet large enough to compensate for major hydrological deviations. Grid capacity constraints further limit their integration. Transmission networks in Vojvodina, central Serbia and the southwest are not prepared for a large-scale influx of intermittent generation. Bottlenecks at transformer stations, insufficient line capacity and outdated grid management systems force the system operator to impose curtailments during peak renewable periods.
This tension — between rising renewable ambition and legacy infrastructure — is one of the defining challenges of Serbia’s energy future. The country can celebrate the 48 percent achievement, but the stability of that figure depends on structural changes rather than favorable weather.
The second part of Serbia’s renewable story is the endurance of coal. Even with nearly half of electricity coming from renewable sources, coal still plays an outsized role in baseload supply. TENT and Kostolac, the country’s two main thermal complexes, remain indispensable to grid reliability. Their decades-old units, however, operate under increasing strain, facing both technological degradation and external pressure to reduce emissions. While Serbia has committed to a gradual coal phase-down, it has not set a definitive phase-out timeline, citing security-of-supply concerns, economic implications and system flexibility limitations.
Experts on serbia-energy.eu frequently highlight that the coal–hydro relationship remains Serbia’s fundamental energy architecture: hydro provides flexibility, coal provides volume. Renewables disrupt this architecture but have not yet replaced it. Transitioning away from coal requires both massive renewable expansion and the development of new balancing mechanisms such as pumped-storage hydropower, battery storage, demand response and advanced system controls. Serbia has plans for these tools, but implementation remains slow and funding uncertain.
The third structural factor affecting the renewable figure is Serbia’s growing electricity demand. Industrial expansion — particularly in metals, manufacturing, IT parks and regional logistics hubs — is increasing energy consumption. Residential consumption is also rising, driven by electrification trends including electric heating and mobility. Without aggressive renewable build-out, rising demand risks pushing Serbia back toward coal reliance or increased imports.
This dynamic exposes a paradox: Serbia achieved a high renewable share not because it dramatically expanded renewables (although progress occurred), but because hydropower performed strongly in a year of relatively stable demand. The system reached its 48 percent threshold at a moment when the interplay of weather, consumption and capacity favored renewables. The trajectory for the future, however, is far less certain.
Still, the achievement is not diminished by these structural caveats. The milestone sends powerful signals to investors, policymakers and the public. It demonstrates that Serbia’s renewable potential is real, scalable and capable of reshaping the country’s energy identity. It strengthens Serbia’s position in regional energy dialogues, where countries compete for green investment, interconnection funding and decarbonization support. It also aligns with Serbia’s commitments under the Energy Community Treaty and EU accession negotiations, particularly in the chapters related to energy, environment and climate action.
But to secure future progress, Serbia must now address the underlying constraints. First, grid modernization must become a national strategic priority. Transmission upgrades, digitalization, smart metering and regional interconnectors are prerequisites for integrating large volumes of new renewable capacity. As serbia-energy.eu repeatedly notes, grid weaknesses pose the single greatest bottleneck to Serbia’s renewable expansion.
Second, Serbia needs a clear, credible long-term energy strategy. The country must define realistic milestones for renewable capacity, coal phase-down, storage deployment and market liberalization. Without clear direction, investors face uncertainty and large-scale projects are delayed.
Third, the government must support renewable diversification. Solar and wind must expand quickly, but biomass, biogas, geothermal and small hydro also offer untapped potential. Decentralized energy — particularly rooftop solar and community energy systems — could play a critical role in stabilizing local distribution networks and reducing transmission strain.
Finally, Serbia must prepare households and industries for a cultural shift: from energy abundance rooted in coal and water to energy efficiency rooted in flexible, smart, diversified systems.
The 48 percent achievement is a milestone worth acknowledging. It reflects Serbia’s natural strengths, emergent renewable sector and the resilience of its energy institutions. But it is also a reminder that progress built on hydrological conditions cannot be the foundation of a sustainable transition. Serbia must convert this moment into momentum — and build an energy system capable of delivering renewable stability not by chance, but by design.