oil

Regulatory approaches to integrated energy systems in Serbia: From fragmentation to coherence 

Serbia’s energy policy is increasingly torn between its traditional sector-based governance and a future that demands full integration. Historically, electricity, gas, heating, fuel supply, and infrastructure planning existed as separate islands. Each sector had its own strategy, regulatory rules, investment plans and corporate logic. For decades, this structure worked. Today, it is becoming a structural […]

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Hungary: MOL expects Danube refinery restoration to extend into Q3 2026 after October fire

Restoration work at MOL’s flagship Danube refinery is now expected to continue into the third quarter of 2026, after which the facility is planned to resume full operations. The extended outage follows a fire in October at the refinery’s AV3 crude distillation unit. An internal technical review determined that the incident was caused by a

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Oil & gas in SEE: Integration, exposure and Serbia’s central position in a region that can no longer pretend fossil risks are “national”

Electricity in South-East Europe has already become a shared risk ecosystem. Oil and gas are not far behind — they are simply at a more politically sensitive and strategically uncomfortable stage of recognition. For a long time, SEE countries managed hydrocarbons as largely national sovereignty domains: national gas strategies, national refinery issues, national storage, national

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Fragmented rules, unified risk

Energy markets in Europe operate under a paradox. Physically and financially, they have become deeply integrated. Regulators, however, still govern them through fragmented frameworks designed for a world of separate sectors and largely national systems. This mismatch between unified market risk and fragmented rules has become a structural source of volatility rather than a stabilising

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Hedging without isolated markets

Hedging strategies are built on assumptions. For much of Europe’s energy-market history, the central assumption was that risks could be segmented. Electricity price risk could be hedged with power forwards. Gas price risk could be managed through hub-based contracts and storage. Oil exposure, if relevant, was addressed separately. These strategies relied on the belief that

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Regional oil flows and indirect impacts

Oil markets shape South-East Europe less through headline prices and more through the direction, reliability, and cost of physical flows. Regional oil movements across the Adriatic, Mediterranean, and Central European corridors form a background structure that quietly conditions gas availability, electricity pricing, and industrial competitiveness. These flows rarely attract attention unless disrupted, yet their influence

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When logistics and refineries overpower the exchange

Energy markets are often portrayed as arenas where prices are discovered on exchanges, driven by transparent bids and offers. In reality, particularly during periods of stress, physical logistics and industrial constraints can dominate price formation, rendering exchange signals secondary. Nowhere is this more evident than in the interaction between oil logistics, refinery operations, and downstream

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Why stability in one market no longer guarantees system stability

For much of Europe’s modern energy history, stability was assessed locally. If electricity prices were calm, the power system was considered healthy. If gas storage was full, supply security was assumed. If oil markets were well supplied, energy risk appeared contained. These indicators worked in a world where markets were loosely connected and shocks propagated

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Short-term disruptions, long-term consequences

Energy markets are often described as short-memory systems. Prices spike, conditions normalise, and attention moves on. This perception is increasingly misleading. In a tightly coupled energy system, short-term disruptions rarely fade without leaving structural traces. Even when prices retreat and flows stabilise, the system that emerges afterward is subtly but materially different from the one

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