SEE

Short-term disruptions, long-term consequences

Energy markets are often described as short-memory systems. Prices spike, conditions normalise, and attention moves on. This perception is increasingly misleading. In a tightly coupled energy system, short-term disruptions rarely fade without leaving structural traces. Even when prices retreat and flows stabilise, the system that emerges afterward is subtly but materially different from the one […]

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Volatility without borders

Volatility used to be treated as a market-specific phenomenon. Electricity was volatile because demand had to be balanced in real time. Gas was volatile seasonally, shaped by weather and storage cycles. Oil was volatile episodically, driven by geopolitics and global supply disruptions. These forms of volatility were analysed separately, hedged separately, and largely expected to

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South-East Europe as Europe’s stress test: What the region reveals about the energy transition

South-East Europe does not sit on the periphery of Europe’s energy system. It sits at its edge in a different sense: the edge where constraints bind first, where volatility appears earliest, and where systemic assumptions are tested under real operating conditions rather than in models. The region is not an exception to Europe’s energy transition.

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One energy system, three fuels: Why Europe no longer has separate power, gas, and oil markets

For most of the modern history of European energy policy, electricity, natural gas, and oil were treated as adjacent but fundamentally separate domains. They were regulated through different frameworks, traded on different venues, analysed by different expert communities, and governed by distinct political narratives. Electricity was a question of grids, generators, and marginal pricing. Gas

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From power flows to industrial costs: How EU electricity volatility reshapes competitiveness in southeast Europe

For decades, electricity was treated by industry as a predictable input. Prices fluctuated within narrow bands, supply security was largely taken for granted, and energy strategy focused on efficiency rather than exposure. In southeast Europe, this assumption underpinned the region’s industrial model. Competitive labour, proximity to EU markets and relatively stable power costs supported metals,

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Flexibility without reward: Why southeast Europe balances Europe’s power system but captures none of the value

In the emerging architecture of Europe’s electricity system, flexibility has become the most valuable attribute a power asset can possess. The ability to ramp output quickly, absorb surplus generation, stabilise frequency, or respond to sudden imbalances now matters more than raw installed capacity. Yet while flexibility has become scarce, it has not become fairly priced.

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EU electricity under CBAM: Why Southeast Europe is structurally exposed

The inclusion of electricity in the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism marks a quiet but profound shift in how power systems at Europe’s periphery are judged, priced, and ultimately integrated. While much of the public CBAM debate has focused on steel, cement, aluminium, and fertilisers, electricity is the only CBAM-covered “product” that is not

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Why SEE industry buys electricity from systems it does not control

For most industrial buyers in South-East Europe, electricity procurement still feels like a domestic decision. Contracts are signed locally. Power is delivered locally. Bills are paid locally. Yet the behaviour of electricity prices no longer reflects local conditions in any meaningful way. Industrial buyers across SEE increasingly purchase electricity from systems they neither see nor

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Cross-border flows and directionality: How interconnectors turned into volatility transmission lines

Cross-border interconnections in South-East Europe were built to improve security of supply, smooth local imbalances, and enable regional trade. For years, they largely fulfilled that role. Flows were slow, predictable, and stabilising. Imports covered outages. Exports absorbed surplus. Price differentials narrowed gradually. That function has changed. In today’s SEE power system, interconnectors no longer primarily

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