Southeast European day-ahead power markets moved in opposite directions on 3 November. Prices rose in Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Albania, while Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece recorded declines. Germany remained cheaper than all the markets listed.
Western Balkan prices diverge from regional markets
Serbia’s SEEPEX base price increased by €11/MWh to €305.14/MWh. Montenegro rose by €15.5 to €302.80/MWh, and North Macedonia gained €9.3 to €302.97/MWh. Albania saw the largest increase, climbing €53.7/MWh to €313.65/MWh, the highest base price among the markets monitored.
In Hungary, HUPX fell by €13.1 to €297.53/MWh. Romania’s price slipped to €297.00/MWh and Bulgaria’s to €296.65/MWh, while Greece dropped by €45.4 to €267.32/MWh. Germany’s price was substantially lower at €252.85/MWh.
The moves left Serbia trading €7.60/MWh above Hungary, with Montenegro €5.26 higher and North Macedonia €5.43 higher. Albania’s premium to HUPX exceeded €16/MWh, while Greece traded €30.21/MWh below Hungary. Local supply-demand conditions and cross-border capacity appeared to have a stronger influence than a shared regional generation signal; Hungary remained €44.69/MWh above Germany.
Demand, imports and renewable output
Average regional electricity demand rose by 459 MW day on day to 35,116 MW. Net imports increased by 204 MW to 4,019 MW, while imports from the core Austrian and Slovak direction rose by 225 MW to 3,202 MW. The region remained dependent on north-to-south inflows.
Renewable generation forecasts were mixed. Wind output was forecast to rise by 942 MW to 6,115 MW, while solar generation fell by 559 MW to 1,318 MW. Higher wind availability coincided with lower solar production and rising consumption, leaving regional import requirements elevated.
Peak prices and forward-market movements
In Serbia, SEEPEX’s base price reached €305.1/MWh, peak hours averaged €341.4/MWh and the daily maximum was €374.5/MWh. The base price also exceeded Serbia’s seven-day average of €296.9/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN price rose to €302.8/MWh from €287.3/MWh a day earlier, with peak prices averaging €337/MWh and reaching €365/MWh.
Forward power contracts in Hungary moved in different directions. The Week 46 contract fell by €20.5 to €312.50/MWh, and December power declined by €21.5 to €265/MWh. Week 47 power, by contrast, increased by €8 to €298/MWh.
Gas and coal prices declined. Austrian CEGH gas fell by €6.3 to €99.05/MWh, Greek gas dropped by €9.2 to €87.93/MWh, and December gas decreased by €9 to €96.50/MWh. December coal fell by €6 to €142.5, while EU carbon allowances rose by €1.3 to €90.52/tonne.
Softer fuel and forward prices were easing fundamental cost pressure, but high import requirements and cross-border price separation were keeping Western Balkan day-ahead markets above the regional core. For Serbia and Montenegro, the immediate market signal was a localized premium rather than a generalized European price surge.
Indicators to monitor include whether Albania’s sharp price increase unwinds, whether Serbia and Montenegro maintain their premiums to HUPX, and whether the wide Hungary-Germany spread narrows as regional demand and renewable output change.