Gross scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% in January–September 2026, while regional day-ahead trading increased, according to the Energy Community Secretariat’s third-quarter 2026 assessment. The figures show organised-market activity growing even as scheduled cross-border flows remained below 2025 levels amid additional carbon-related costs for electricity transactions with the European Union.
Exchanges in the third quarter were 14.3% lower year on year, although they recovered 8.6% from the previous quarter. The assessment covers electricity trading in the quarter and compares January–September 2026 with the corresponding period in 2025.
Day-ahead volumes grow as carbon costs enter trading calculations
Day-ahead trading volumes on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh in the third quarter, up 26.7% year on year. The expansion across the four organised electricity markets contrasted with lower scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets, pointing to stronger regional trading activity alongside more complicated access to neighbouring wholesale prices.
Across eight Western Balkan–EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter 2026 hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. The assessment notes that a wholesale price spread that once supported cross-border arbitrage may not provide an attractive commercial margin once carbon obligations and delivery costs are included.
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The actual cost of electricity imports depends on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
For traders, the assessment says commercial calculations increasingly need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities. This means a price spread must be considered alongside the costs of delivering electricity and its regulatory carbon treatment.
Export patterns vary between Serbia and Montenegro
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary declined 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. On the Montenegro-to-Italy route, scheduled exports increased approximately 80%.
The differing trends indicate that CBAM exposure does not determine commercial flows on its own. Generation, demand, hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also influence exchanges, while wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected commercial variables.
The assessment describes a growing distinction for Western Balkan generators between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and output that can economically reach EU customers. A potential structural discount may affect exporting markets with carbon-intensive generation mixes, or where low-carbon production does not meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
It also cautions that the changes cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM: generation, demand, hydrology and available interconnection capacity affect trading patterns. For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the challenge identified in the assessment is preserving efficient electricity trade while adapting to carbon rules that can determine whether cross-border transactions are profitable.