Day-ahead electricity prices in Serbia rose by €47.20/MWh to €150.18/MWh for October 1. The move coincided with stronger pricing in Hungary, Romania and parts of the northern Balkan market, while Albania and Montenegro declined.
The divergence widened regional trading spreads despite forecasts for higher renewable generation and slightly weaker overall consumption. Germany also saw a sharper price increase, which reversed Hungary’s premium over the German market. The change in relative pricing accompanied a reduction in electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia into the region.
Central exchanges rise while southern markets diverge
On the main central exchanges, Hungary’s HUPX settled at €163.72/MWh, up €18.10/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM increased by €20.20/MWh to €164.48/MWh. The resulting spread between the two markets was €0.76/MWh.
Slovenia climbed by €21.70/MWh to €170.77/MWh, while Croatia gained €21.40/MWh to €169.38/MWh. Both markets remained above Hungary, with premiums of around €7/MWh for Slovenia and around €6/MWh for Croatia.
Serbia recorded the largest increase among the southeast European exchanges covered, but still held a €13.54/MWh discount versus Hungary. Serbia’s projected net imports averaged 735 MW, while Hungary and Croatia remained net importers at 995 MW and 896 MW, respectively.
The southern markets followed a different pattern. Albania’s ALPEX fell by €48.50/MWh to €97.94/MWh, the lowest price among the surveyed markets, while Montenegro’s BELEN eased by €1.70/MWh to €114.22/MWh.
Greece rose by €1.60/MWh to €111.17/MWh, Bulgaria increased by €1.10/MWh to €134.86/MWh, and North Macedonia added €7.80/MWh to €115.91/MWh.
Daily average spreads indicated potential value for cross-border trading, with Hungary trading about €52.55/MWh above Greece and nearly €66/MWh above Albania. The source data also noted that executable margins depend on hourly prices, transmission capacity and delivery costs.
Balances shift as renewables forecasts change; Germany lifts external reference
The regional balance across Hungary and southeast Europe shifted from 226 MW of net imports on September 30 to 248 MW of net exports for October 1. Forecast consumption slipped by 80 MW to 29,382 MW.
Forecast solar generation was set to rise by 1,983 MW to 6,759 MW, offsetting a 383 MW decline in wind output to 4,937 MW. Combined wind and solar production therefore increased by about 1,600 MW.
The data set also pointed to a limited demand-driven explanation for the price rise based on these forecasts alone, noting that identifying causes of individual market moves would require hourly generation, plant availability and transmission data.
The clearest external change came from Germany, where electricity rose by €54.40/MWh to €195.18/MWh. Hungary moved from a premium of roughly €4.90/MWh on the previous day to a €31.46/MWh discount.
At the same time, forecast imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia fell by 686 MW to 479 MW combined. Italy remained the highest-priced surveyed market at €209.95/MWh, with net flows towards Italy averaging 1,381 MW.
Forward curves strengthen; gas and carbon move
Forward prices strengthened across key maturities for Hungary: week 41 power rose by €3.50/MWh to €198.50/MWh and week 42 gained €7/MWh to €206/MWh. November power increased to €198.50/MWh, around €35/MWh above the October 1 spot average.
Austrian CEGH rose to €73.73/MWh, while Greek gas reached €66.45/MWh. Carbon allowances eased to €85.09 a tonne, providing some relief for fossil-fuel generators relative to higher gas costs.
For buyers, exposure remained concentrated in Serbia and the northern markets despite higher forecast renewable output improving the regional balance overall. The Serbian daily increase in electricity costs was reported at €47.20/MWh.