SEEPEX’s day-ahead average in Serbia increased by €45.20/MWh to €230.76/MWh on Monday, October 12. The Serbian level left it €4.12/MWh below Hungary. Montenegro’s BELEN rose by €43.10/MWh to €208.46/MWh, keeping a wider discount of €26.42/MWh versus the Hungarian benchmark.
Bulgaria’s IBEX recorded the highest regional average at €235.50/MWh, up €60.30/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM followed at €235.29/MWh, increasing by €59.20/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX climbed by €48.80/MWh to €234.88/MWh.
The three markets were separated by less than €1/MWh, limiting scope for trading margins based only on daily average price differences. Hourly spreads and transmission availability were cited as key factors for whether individual cross-border trades remained attractive.
Regional price moves beyond the main benchmarks
Croatia reached €226.98/MWh and Slovenia €224.94/MWh, with both markets rising by €53.30/MWh. Greece increased by €58.90/MWh to €218.04/MWh. Albania moved up to €222.35/MWh, while North Macedonia stayed the cheapest in the regional comparison at €198.47/MWh, up €7.60/MWh.
Demand and wind forecasts shift supply needs
The supply-demand outlook changed through higher consumption alongside lower wind output forecasts. Forecast average demand across Hungary and SEE coverage rose by 3,605 MW to 30,588 MW, about 13.4% above Sunday.
Forecast wind generation fell by 2,358 MW to 1,397 MW, a decline of nearly 63%. Solar output was expected to rise by 1,219 MW to 4,379 MW, cushioning part of the wind fall.
Taken together, combined wind and solar generation declined by about 1,139 MW. With demand higher versus Sunday, the forecasts implied approximately 4,744 MW more supply would need to come from other generation or imports.
Regional net imports increased by only 300 MW to 3,719 MW. Imports through monitored Austria–Slovakia routes into Hungary and Slovenia rose by 395 MW to 3,140 MW, indicating that additional imports alone were not sufficient to cover the change in demand and renewable availability.
Evolving spreads and commodity cost inputs
The price increase extended beyond southeastern Europe, with Germany’s day-ahead average rising by €74.90/MWh to €197.23/MWh. This meant Hungary’s premium over Germany narrowed by €26.10/MWh, down to €37.65/MWh.
The daily averages showed a narrowing Hungary–Germany differential even though they could not establish conditions on individual borders or specific hours.
Ahead in forward markets, Hungary’s week 42 spread over Germany widened to €75.50/MWh, while week 43 reached