Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimates CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, rising to €161.4 million in 2029. Exporters will need to provide EU buyers with timely, verifiable emissions data to support reporting and contract negotiations.
Serbia’s estimated 2026 exposure to the EU’s carbon border regime is 140.2 million euros, with iron and steel accounting for the largest share. Electricity adds 21.8 million euros and is subject to different compliance rules.
EU importer-mirror data put 2025 purchases of Serbian iron and steel under HS72 at 567 million euros, while an EU steel-safeguards regulation cited 760,234 tonnes of imports in its examined categories. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance projects 89.1 million euros of iron-and-steel CBAM exposure in 2026 under its baseline assumptions.
European Union customs data recorded about 567 million euros of Serbian iron and steel imports and 448 million euros of aluminium imports in 2025. The figures show trade routes but generally do not identify final users or establish who will bear Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism costs.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates potential 2026 exposure of 140.2 million euros under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. EU importers hold the legal declaration and certificate duties, but contract pricing may pass costs to Serbian suppliers and affect their sale prices.
Western Balkan electricity exporters face difficulties proving the emissions and generating origin of power sold into the EU, as flows through Serbia can combine domestic production, purchases and transit. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated electricity-related exposure of 21.8 million euros for 2026.
Hungary and Romania reported nearly 7 TWh of electricity imports attributed to Serbia in 2025, out of 9.845 TWh across four EU markets. The gross customs figures do not identify which Serbian generating installations produced the electricity for EU carbon accounting.
Germany and Slovenia were the largest directly recorded EU markets for Serbian aluminium in 2025, with sales of about €75 million and €72 million respectively. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is making verified product-level emissions data a growing part of supplier specifications and price negotiations.
EU member states imported €1,150.3 million of electricity from Serbia in 2025, while three flat-steel product families accounted for more than €500 million. The trade values can help companies prioritise CBAM data checks, but broad customs codes do not establish which goods are covered or the emissions charges due.
Poland, Czechia and Hungary were the leading direct EU markets for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led aluminium imports. The rankings differ from the EU’s largest overall markets for goods covered by CBAM.
EU importer-mirror data put 2025 iron and steel purchases from Serbia at 567 million euros, while a separate EU steel-safeguards regulation cited 760,234 tonnes in its examined product categories. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance projects 89.1 million euros in iron-and-steel CBAM exposure in 2026 under its baseline assumptions.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, rising to €161.4 million in 2029. Exporters will need to provide EU buyers with timely, verifiable emissions data to support reporting and contract negotiations.
