Serbia’s estimated 2026 exposure to the EU’s carbon border regime is €140.2 million, with iron and steel accounting for the largest share. Electricity adds €21.8 million and faces compliance rules distinct from those for metals.
European Union customs data recorded about €567 million of Serbian iron and steel imports and €448 million of aluminium imports in 2025. The figures show trade routes but generally do not identify final users or reveal who will bear Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism costs.
EU member states imported €1,150.3 million of electricity from Serbia in 2025, while three flat-steel product families accounted for more than €500 million. The figures can help businesses prioritise CBAM data checks, but broad product codes do not determine which goods are covered or the emissions charges due.
Poland, Czechia and Hungary were the leading direct EU markets for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led aluminium imports. The country rankings differ from the EU’s largest overall markets for goods covered by CBAM.
Western Balkan electricity exporters face difficulties proving the emissions and generating origin of power sold into the EU. Serbia’s position as both a producer and transit market highlights the challenge, with the Ministry of Finance estimating electricity-related exposure of around 21.8 million euros for 2026.
Germany and Slovenia were the largest recorded EU markets for Serbian aluminium in 2025, with imports worth about €75 million and €72 million respectively. The EU carbon-border regime is making verified, product-level emissions data an increasingly important part of supplier specifications and price negotiations.
Hungary and Romania accounted for nearly 7 TWh of the 9.845 TWh of gross electricity imports attributed to Serbia by EU customs statistics in 2025. Those trade totals do not identify the Serbian generating installations relevant to EU carbon accounting.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimated potential 2026 exposure of 140.2 million euros under the EU carbon border mechanism. EU importers carry the legal reporting and certificate obligations, but contract terms could shift costs to Serbian suppliers.
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