Weekly changes across major European power markets
Weekly average electricity prices fell across most major European markets during the third week of September, while Italy was the only market to record an increase. Great Britain saw the sharpest weekly decline at 23%, followed by the Nordic market at 22% and Belgium at 19%. Prices dropped by 17% in both the Netherlands and Germany and by 14% in France. Portugal and Spain recorded decreases of 3.8% each, while Italy rose by 2.5%.
Weekly averages remain above €130/MWh in most markets
Even with the weekly declines, average electricity prices stayed above €130/MWh across most European markets. The Nordic market was the exception, with the lowest weekly average at €81.46/MWh. Italy posted the highest weekly average at €215.82/MWh, followed by Belgium at €141.42/MWh and the Netherlands at €139.11/MWh. For other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, weekly averages ranged from €131.75/MWh in France to €135.25/MWh in Germany.
Early-week price levels exceed €200/MWh
Electricity prices were particularly high at the start of the week, exceeding €200/MWh in Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain, Belgium and the Netherlands. On September 14, Germany recorded the highest daily average among the analyzed markets at €256.55/MWh. Belgium and the Netherlands also exceeded €229/MWh on that day. France, Portugal, Spain and the Nordic market reached their highest daily averages since December 2022.
Sharp fall after September 19
Prices declined sharply from September 19 onward across most markets. Great Britain recorded a daily average of €31.24/MWh on September 19, while the Nordic market reached €9.71/MWh. On September 20, Germany posted €21.75/MWh and the Nordic market fell further to €8.59/MWh, described as the lowest level of the week among the analyzed markets.
The decline was supported by higher wind generation and lower electricity demand in some markets. Italy moved differently over the same period, with lower wind generation alongside elevated gas and CO₂ allowance prices contributing to higher electricity prices.
Outlook for week beginning September 21
For the week beginning September 21, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting expects electricity prices to increase in most analyzed European markets, mainly due to lower wind power generation. Italy is expected to move in the opposite direction, with prices forecast to decline as wind generation increases. AleaSoft also indicated that gas price developments are expected to remain an important factor influencing European electricity prices during the fourth week of September.