Germany bought about €75 million of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles in 2025, while Slovenia bought €72 million, making them Serbia’s largest directly recorded EU markets, according to customs-trade figures. EU imports of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles under HS76 were valued at $505.7 million, or approximately €448 million, that year. As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) brings emissions information into supplier specifications and price negotiations, Serbian exporters must account for product-level data alongside alloy, gauge and surface quality.
France was the third-largest listed EU market, at €64 million, followed by Croatia at €36 million and Romania at €35 million. By product, EU imports included about €149 million of Serbian aluminium plate, sheet and strip under HS7606, €79 million of containers under HS7612, about €62 million of other articles under HS7616 and around €41 million of profiles under HS7604.
The product mix points to trade in processed metal as well as primary smelting. The country figures represent customs-entry markets and do not necessarily identify the factories that ultimately use the metal in construction systems, machinery or transport equipment. German and Slovenian processors can combine purchases and make components for customers in several EU markets, meaning the customs destination may not identify which party sets the commercial terms.
Emissions data in supplier negotiations
Impol Seval, a major Serbian rolled-aluminium producer, reported about €89.7 million in export receipts in the first six months of 2025. The company identified Germany, Italy and France among its key markets. Its disclosures indicate export demand and domestic rolling capacity, but do not establish that particular shipments went to vehicles, aircraft or branded consumer packaging.
For EU purchasers, aluminium costs passed through under CBAM depend, within current coverage, on direct embedded emissions, the production route, precursor inputs and verification. Electricity procurement remains relevant to plant competitiveness and broader buyer sustainability requirements. However, indirect electricity emissions should not simply be included in the initial aluminium certificate calculation.
That distinction makes verified plant and batch-level emissions data important, while suppliers also need to distinguish legal emissions reporting from voluntary low-carbon claims. A Serbian exporter may work with a distributor carrying inventory risk and certificate exposure, while a separate manufacturing customer specifies the alloy and carbon information, according to the market context described in the trade data.
Ministry estimate relies on default values
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated the country’s aluminium exposure under CBAM at €19.5 million in 2026 and projected it to remain near that level through much of the projection period. The estimate assumes that 2025 exports remain fixed and uses default emissions values, the ministry said.
Actual obligations could differ considerably as transaction patterns, verified factory emissions and EU certificate prices change. The ministry’s model includes possible relief if EU authorities recognise carbon prices paid in Serbia, but such recognition is not automatic.
Trade data indicate that suppliers able to allocate emissions to specific product batches, disclose consistently across trading entities and demonstrate physical quality as well as documentary compliance may be better placed to maintain access to European manufacturing chains. Identifying which buyer or intermediary sets the commercial terms can be as important to exporters as knowing the customs destination. Establishing specific end customers would require contract or supply-chain evidence.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer