Poland imported €125.3 million of Serbian iron and steel in 2025, the highest value among direct EU markets, while Germany led imports of Serbian aluminium. The country rankings differ from EU-wide import patterns for goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Those wider patterns do not identify the main buyers of Serbia’s covered-sector exports.
Serbian steel trade across EU markets
Serbia’s total EU exports in the HS72 iron and steel category were valued at $640.7 million, equivalent to approximately €567 million at the 2025 average exchange rate. After Poland, Czechia was the second-largest direct EU market, with imports worth €77.8 million. Hungary followed with €71.9 million.
Italy imported €53.4 million of Serbian HS72 goods and Slovenia €10.0 million, while Germany’s direct imports were €4.9 million. Bulgaria and Romania were also significant direct markets, although no import values were specified for either country. The EU-wide ranking for CBAM-code imports from all extra-EU origins was different: Italy accounted for 17.6% of their value in 2025, while Germany and the Netherlands each represented about 12.7%. That ranking covers steel, aluminium, fertilisers, power and other goods, and does not show Serbia-specific purchases.
Aluminium trade and CBAM exposure
EU imports from Serbia in HS76 aluminium and articles totalled $505.7 million in 2025, equivalent to approximately €448 million. Germany was the largest direct reporting market, at €75.0 million, followed by Slovenia at €72.2 million and France at €64.0 million. Poland imported €25.4 million of Serbian aluminium, Hungary €14.3 million and Italy €12.1 million, while Czechia’s imports were €6.0 million. Croatia and Romania also followed the three leading markets, but no values were specified for them.
The euro figures are indicative conversions of US-dollar trade values using the 2025 average rate of €1 = $1.1300. HS72 and HS76 are chapter-level categories that include products such as ferrous and aluminium scrap outside CBAM Annex I coverage. They therefore indicate trade orientation and a possible compliance pipeline, rather than the precise value of Serbia’s CBAM-liable sales. Determining whether an individual delivery is covered requires an eight-digit Combined Nomenclature match.
Customs clearance does not establish where a product is ultimately consumed, and the importer of record may be a merchant, service centre or regional distributor rather than the industrial customer. A Serbian steel coil entering Poland could be rolled, coated or shaped before being used in machinery sold in Germany. Aluminium reported at Slovenia’s border could also move onward as a semi-finished product or be processed in several countries.
The direct-import pattern points to manufacturing and distribution clusters in central Europe, rather than showing that the largest EU customs markets buy every Serbian product. Steel suppliers should engage with buyers and processors in Poland, Czechia and Hungary. Aluminium exporters should prioritise contract chains in Germany, Slovenia and France.
Exporters need to identify both the party legally responsible for CBAM as declarant and the industrial customer that controls technical specifications. The party paying customs-related costs may not determine a material’s long-term competitiveness. If importers use conservative default emissions values while awaiting verified plant data, purchase prices could carry a carbon premium greater than the producer’s actual emissions warrant. Exporters seeking to defend market share need documented production and emissions information that travels with the goods.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer