Germany bought about €75 million of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles in 2025, while Slovenia bought €72 million, making them the largest directly recorded EU markets, customs-trade data show. As the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) brings emissions information into supplier specifications and price negotiations, exporters increasingly need verified product-level data alongside alloy, gauge and surface quality.
EU imports from Serbia under HS76 were valued at $505.7 million, approximately €448 million, in 2025. France bought €64 million, followed by Croatia at €36 million and Romania at €35 million.
The product breakdown points to trade in processed metal rather than only primary smelting. EU imports included about €149 million of Serbian aluminium plate, sheet and strip under HS7606, €79 million of containers under HS7612, about €62 million of other articles under HS7616 and around €41 million of profiles under HS7604. Serbian aluminium scrap under HS7602 was also traded, but scrap is not covered by the initial CBAM annex and should be excluded from a precise CBAM trade total.
The country figures identify customs-entry markets, not necessarily the factories that ultimately incorporate the metal into construction systems, machinery or transport equipment. German and Slovenian processors can aggregate purchases and produce components for customers across several EU markets. An exporter may negotiate with a distributor carrying inventory risk and certificate exposure, while a separate manufacturing customer specifies the alloy and carbon data; identifying which party sets commercial terms can matter as much as the customs destination.
Emissions data enter supplier negotiations
Impol Seval, a major Serbian rolled-aluminium producer, reported about €89.7 million in export receipts in the first six months of 2025. It named Germany, Italy and France among its key markets. The disclosures indicate industrial export demand and domestic rolling capacity, but do not establish that specific shipments went to vehicles, aircraft or branded consumer packaging; identifying particular end users would require contract or supply-chain evidence.
For an EU purchaser, the aluminium cost passed through under current CBAM coverage depends on direct embedded emissions, the production route, precursor inputs and verification. Electricity procurement remains important to plant competitiveness and buyers’ broader sustainability requirements, but indirect electricity emissions should not simply be added to the initial CBAM certificate calculation for aluminium.
That distinction requires suppliers to separate legal emissions reporting from voluntary low-carbon commercial claims. Suppliers able to allocate emissions to specific product batches, disclose consistently across trading entities, and demonstrate physical quality and documentary compliance can defend access to European manufacturing chains rather than relying on a generic low-carbon figure.
Ministry estimate uses default values
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated aluminium CBAM exposure at €19.5 million in 2026 and projected it to remain near that level through much of the projection period. The estimate assumes 2025 exports remain fixed and uses default emissions values.
Actual obligations could differ considerably as transaction patterns, verified factory emissions and EU certificate prices change. The ministry’s model includes possible relief if EU authorities recognise carbon prices paid in Serbia, but that recognition must not be assumed automatically.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer