Serbia’s Finance Ministry projects that the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will reach approximately €140.2 million in 2026. Serbian exporters are facing greater demands to document emissions while meeting price and delivery terms. The estimate is a projection, not a tax bill or recorded revenue, although the rules could affect supplier costs and access to EU customers.
In 2025, imports into the EU matching the customs codes relevant to CBAM were valued at €111.23 billion. This figure reflects the border value of the goods, not the value of certificates due, and includes imports from exempt source countries. Excluding those origins leaves about €94.74 billion of potentially relevant trade before product, importer and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports covered by the codes, and aluminium for €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin across the full import total, but its trade is concentrated in corridors linking Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other goods shipped from Serbia.
The Finance Ministry estimates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU are within CBAM’s scope. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses have direct or indirect links to covered sectors. These industries account for around 4.5% of employment, extending the compliance issue beyond a small group of large producers.
Under the ministry’s baseline scenario, projected exposure reaches €161.4 million in 2029. The 2026 estimate consists of €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations use a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36; they are not invoices issued to Serbian companies.
Emissions data and importer obligations
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants have the formal reporting and certificate obligations, but related commercial costs may be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses. Costs may also be passed on to downstream processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Negotiations will partly depend on whether plants can demonstrate emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by September 30, 2027. Serbian suppliers therefore need to provide product classifications, installation-level production records and emissions evidence in time for buyers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that fail to provide the required information risk losing business, even if their actual carbon performance is competitive. A lower-carbon production route has commercial value only if its emissions can be demonstrated, linked to the correct shipment and accepted in the importer’s declaration. For Serbian exporters, the immediate test is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain EU customers.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer