The transfer of ownership of Russian oil assets across South-East Europe has not only changed who controls refineries and fuel retail networks; it has fundamentally altered how a range of secondary energy commodities are priced, supplied and financed. These by-products of refining—petroleum coke, bitumen, sulphur and heavy fuel intermediates—rarely feature in high-level energy debates, yet they sit at the core of construction, cement, road building and basic industrial activity. As refinery ownership shifts from state-aligned Russian operators to commercially driven European groups and global trading houses, the economics of these by-products are being repriced in ways that are already feeding through into infrastructure costs and public investment budgets.
For much of the past two decades, by-products were effectively cross-subsidised within vertically integrated refining systems. Margins earned on fuels allowed refineries to price petcoke or bitumen in ways that prioritised domestic supply stability over commercial optimisation. That era is ending. Under new ownership models, by-products are no longer treated as strategic domestic inputs but as monetisable commodities exposed to global arbitrage.
The hidden importance of refinery by-products
Refineries do not produce only gasoline and diesel. In South-East Europe, a typical medium-to-large refinery generates between 5% and 10% of its output as secondary products, including petcoke and bitumen. While these volumes are small relative to fuels, their economic importance is disproportionate.
Petroleum coke is a critical input for cement plants and certain metallurgical processes. Bitumen underpins road construction, airport runways and large-scale civil works. In many SEE countries, domestic refinery supply covers a majority of demand, limiting import exposure and stabilising prices.
Before ownership changes, regional refineries effectively acted as domestic suppliers of last resort. Prices tracked costs loosely and supply continuity took precedence over maximising export margins.
Ownership change and commercial repricing
As refineries move under the control of European energy groups and commodity traders, this implicit subsidy disappears. New owners operate refineries as profit centres within international portfolios. By-products are benchmarked against global prices and sold where margins are highest.
For petcoke, this has been particularly significant. Global demand from cement producers in Asia and the Middle East has tightened markets, pushing international prices higher. In South-East Europe, domestic cement plants that once sourced petcoke at near-cost prices now face market-linked pricing.
Between 2022 and 2025, delivered petcoke prices in the region increased by €30–50 per tonne, depending on sulphur content and logistics. For a cement plant consuming 200–300 thousand tonnes per year, this translates into additional annual fuel costs of €6–15 million, a material increase in operating expenditure.
Bitumen and infrastructure cost inflation
The repricing of bitumen has even broader implications because it directly affects public infrastructure. Road construction, maintenance and large civil projects are highly sensitive to bitumen prices, which can account for 30–40% of asphalt costs.
Under the previous ownership regime, bitumen pricing in SEE markets often lagged international benchmarks. With new owners, pricing has tightened. Import parity pricing and export optionality mean domestic buyers now compete with Mediterranean and global demand.
Since ownership transitions began, bitumen prices in import-dependent SEE markets have risen by 20–35%. For highway construction projects, this alone has increased total project costs by 5–9%, even before accounting for labour and steel inflation.
For governments with multi-year infrastructure programmes, these increases strain budgets. A national road programme valued at €1 billion can see unplanned cost overruns of €50–90 million purely from bitumen repricing.
Cement, concrete and secondary effects
Cement producers sit at the intersection of these pressures. They face higher petcoke costs, rising electricity prices and increasing carbon-related expenses. The cumulative effect is an increase in cement production OPEX of €4–7 per tonne compared with pre-crisis norms.
Concrete and construction materials producers then pass these costs downstream. For large infrastructure projects, materials inflation compounds across multiple inputs, amplifying budgetary pressure.
This dynamic is particularly acute in South-East Europe, where public infrastructure investment is a key economic driver. Cost overruns force either project delays, scope reductions or additional public borrowing.
Logistics and supply chain constraints
Ownership change has also altered logistics priorities. Under Russian ownership, refineries often prioritised domestic deliveries, even at the expense of logistics efficiency. Commercial owners optimise logistics, favouring larger export parcels and centralised storage.
This shift increases the risk of short-term domestic shortages during peak construction seasons. Contractors accustomed to just-in-time supply now face tighter delivery windows and higher working capital requirements.
The logistics premium embedded in by-product pricing has increased by 10–15%, reflecting higher transport costs, storage optimisation and risk premiums applied by traders.
Capex implications for refineries and buyers
For refineries, by-products represent an opportunity to improve margins but also require investment. Upgrading delayed coking units, storage and loading facilities can increase flexibility and profitability. Such upgrades typically require CAPEX of €50–150 million per refinery, depending on scope.
For downstream buyers, adaptation requires investment in alternative fuels, storage and blending capabilities. Cement plants, for example, may invest €20–40 million to diversify fuel mixes or increase storage, reducing exposure to spot pricing.
These investments add to the region’s already heavy capital requirements in energy and infrastructure.
Macroeconomic and fiscal consequences
At the macro level, by-product repricing feeds directly into public finances. Higher infrastructure costs increase capital expenditure needs or reduce project scope. Where projects are EU-funded or co-financed, national co-financing requirements rise.
Over a five-year horizon, cumulative additional infrastructure costs attributable to by-product repricing could reach €1–1.5 billion across South-East Europe. This is not a one-off shock but a structural shift in cost base.
Winners and losers
The beneficiaries of this transition are refinery owners and logistics operators, who capture higher margins and greater optionality. Commodity traders also benefit from arbitrage opportunities between domestic and export markets.
The losers are construction companies operating on fixed-price contracts, public authorities with rigid budgets and industries such as cement that face cost increases they cannot fully pass through.
Outlook to 2030
By 2030, refinery by-products in South-East Europe will be fully integrated into global commodity markets. Prices will remain volatile and aligned with international benchmarks. Domestic supply stability will depend on contractual arrangements rather than ownership alignment.
For policymakers, the implication is clear. Infrastructure planning must assume higher and more volatile input costs. Contingency allowances, flexible procurement models and improved forecasting are no longer optional.
An overlooked transmission channel
The ownership shift in oil assets has revealed how deeply interconnected energy systems are with broader economic activity. By-products such as petcoke and bitumen may appear peripheral, but their repricing transmits energy market shocks directly into roads, bridges and buildings.
In this sense, refinery by-products represent one of the most immediate and tangible consequences of South-East Europe’s post-Russian energy transition. They do not feature in geopolitical headlines, but they shape budgets, projects and economic outcomes across the region.