Southeast European day-ahead power prices stayed near €300/MWh on November 4, while widening gaps between markets pointed to greater regional fragmentation. Imports increased, and Serbia’s prices moved lower relative to the region.
Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria recorded the closest day-ahead prices: HUPX settled at €302.31/MWh, Romania at €300.84/MWh and Bulgaria at €301.69/MWh. All three rose from the previous session. Montenegro and North Macedonia were also near that level, at €299.13/MWh and €299.90/MWh, respectively.
Price movements diverged more sharply elsewhere. Serbia’s SEEPEX fell €12.7/MWh to €292.45/MWh, while Albania rose €19.4/MWh to a regional high of €333.03/MWh. Greece gained €12.4 on the day to €279.70/MWh, remaining among the least expensive SEE markets.
Germany’s price was €248.99/MWh, substantially below the region and leaving Hungary at a €53.33/MWh premium. Italy was also cheaper than most SEE markets, at €282.19/MWh.
Imports rose as regional generation declined
Regional physical balances remained supportive of prices despite lower forecast consumption. Demand was projected to fall by 712 MW to 34,910 MW, while net imports were forecast to increase by 483 MW to 4,244 MW.
Imports from the Austria-Slovakia direction rose to 3,142 MW. Flows from Italy into the region increased to 1,104 MW, raising SEE’s reliance on external supply even as overall demand eased.
Regional generation declined from 31,861 MW on November 3 to around 30,665 MW on November 4. The renewable outlook shifted in opposite directions: solar output was forecast to increase by 1,304 MW, while wind generation was expected to drop by 1,464 MW, more than offsetting the solar gain.
Serbia and Albania moved in opposite directions
Serbia provided one of the clearest signs of regional price decoupling. SEEPEX base power fell to €292.45/MWh, almost €10/MWh below Hungary.
The decline was concentrated in peak hours. Serbian peak prices fell to €316.5/MWh from €341.4/MWh, while off-peak prices were nearly unchanged at €268.4/MWh. The pattern points to easing peak-period tightness as the main driver of the Serbian drop, rather than a broad decrease across the daily curve.
Albania moved in the opposite direction, with ALPEX rising to €333.03/MWh, more than €40/MWh above Serbia. Its maximum hourly price reached €600/MWh at H21.
The widening Serbia-Albania gap shows how transmission constraints and local generation conditions can produce large price differences between geographically close SEE markets.
Forward prices and regional spreads
Forward markets were weaker than the spot market. Hungarian Week 46 power rose slightly to €314/MWh, while Week 47 fell to €294/MWh and December declined to €262/MWh.
The HU-DE Week 47 spread narrowed by €18.5/MWh to €71/MWh. Gas, carbon and coal benchmarks also moved lower, offering less evidence that the latest strength in spot prices was driven by a new fuel-cost shock.
The trading signal increasingly concerns price dispersion rather than the headline SEE level. Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria remained closely grouped around €301-302/MWh; Serbia moved into a lower-priced Central Balkan pocket, Greece and Italy remained cheaper, and Albania became the region’s clearest scarcity market.
SEE net imports were above 4.2 GW, while Hungary continued to trade more than €50/MWh above Germany. Cross-border capacity, wind availability and national generation balances remain the main drivers to monitor in the next trading sessions.