Electricity prices across southeastern Europe rose sharply on Monday, October 5, alongside a return of weekday demand and lower wind generation. The move widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €76.14/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead average increased by €71.90 to €232.76/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM gained €67.50 to €228.48/MWh.
Day-ahead price moves across regional exchanges
Albania recorded the largest increase among the markets covered, rising €119.80 to €277.08/MWh. Croatia’s CROPEX climbed €59.80 to €219.83/MWh, and Slovenia’s BSP gained €58.50 to €217.71/MWh. Both remained below Hungary by €12.93/MWh and €15.05/MWh, respectively.
Bulgaria’s IBEX increased €56.10 to €203.78/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN rose €51.60 to €209.92/MWh. Serbia saw a smaller increase as SEEPEX rose €14.70 to €169.68/MWh, leaving it €63.08/MWh below Hungary and €58.80/MWh below Romania.
Germany’s day-ahead average fell by €11.70 to €156.62/MWh, while Austria rose by €43.20 to €200.33/MWh. Greece’s HENEX increased by €38.70 to €149.51/MWh, remaining €83.26/MWh below Hungary.
North Macedonia posted the lowest day-ahead average among the listed markets at €145.40/MWh after a €13.70 increase. The gap between North Macedonia and Albania reached €131.68/MWh. Hungary’s spread over Germany shifted from a discount of about €7.40/MWh on Sunday to Monday’s premium.
Demand outlook, renewables forecast and import flows
The price increases coincided with a forecast rise in regional electricity consumption to an average of 28,706 MW, up 2,758 MW or 10.6% from Sunday. Wind generation was forecast to fall 886 MW to 2,093 MW, while solar output edged down 87 MW to 5,549 MW.
Together, the demand increase and renewable decline implied roughly 3,731 MW of additional supply requirements from other generation and imports compared with Sunday. Regional net imports increased by 532 MW to 1,636 MW.
Inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose 296 MW to 1,326 MW, indicating greater reliance on neighbouring Central European markets. Serbia showed average net imports of 862 MW despite its price discount versus nearby exchanges.
Romania’s net imports stood at 1,407 MW, Croatia’s at 1,090 MW and Hungary’s at 627 MW. Bulgaria and Greece provided counterweight net exports of 1,445 MW and 992 MW respectively.
Forward prices and fuel-carbon indicators
The spot-market jump was not matched by forward indications in the report for Hungarian power trading weeks 41 and 42. Week-41 eased by €3.50 to €196/MWh, while week-42 fell by €4 to €203/MWh; November remained at €208/MWh below Monday’s spot average.
Austrian CEGH spot gas edged up by €0.20 to €75.22/MWh, while Greek gas fell by €2.30 to €69/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €84.42 per tonne.