Serbian day-ahead electricity prices fell for delivery on 2 October, contrasting with increases across most neighbouring markets. The move widened the discount to Hungary’s HUPX, while sharp evening peaks showed that lower daily averages did not eliminate higher hourly supply costs. The SEEPEX settlement for the day-ahead market was €137.92/MWh, down €12.30/MWh from the previous day.
Hungary’s HUPX rose €7.60/MWh to €171.27/MWh, leaving Serbian electricity €33.35/MWh cheaper. The gap widened by about €20/MWh in one session. Romania also moved lower, slipping €2.60/MWh to €161.91/MWh.
Elsewhere, prices strengthened across the region. Slovenia reached €188.30/MWh, up €17.50/MWh, while Croatia gained €9.30/MWh to €178.66/MWh. The divergence increased the potential value of supplying higher-priced markets from Serbia and the eastern Balkans.
Realised margins depend on hourly price differences, transmission capacity and the cost of securing cross-border access. Montenegro’s BELEN rose €28.70/MWh to €142.87/MWh, reversing much of its recent weakness. Albania recorded the largest daily increase, climbing €61/MWh to €158.90/MWh, while North Macedonia advanced €20.80/MWh to €136.75/MWh.
Despite those gains, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia remained below Hungary’s level. Montenegro traded at a €28.40/MWh discount to HUPX, Albania at a €12.37/MWh discount and North Macedonia at a €34.52/MWh discount. Greece remained the cheapest market in the report at €120.52/MWh, although its daily average rose €9.40/MWh.
Bulgaria increased €3.80/MWh to €138.63/MWh, leaving both Bulgaria and Greece substantially below Hungary and the western part of the region. Alongside the price moves, forecast supply conditions improved in aggregate terms for Hungary and southeastern Europe. Forecast average demand eased to 29,086 MW, about 297 MW lower than the previous day.
The region’s net export position increased to 593 MW from 248 MW. Forecast solar generation rose by 1,731 MW to 6,539 MW, more than offsetting a 1,016 MW decline in wind output to 4,923 MW. The combined renewable increase coincided with lower demand, with effects varying between markets and delivery hours.
Cross-border flows also shifted during the session window covered by the report. Net imports from Austria and Slovakia fell to 132 MW from 479 MW, while commercial exports towards Italy remained substantial at 1,359 MW compared with 1,381 MW previously. Italy’s national price averaged €216.17/MWh.
Germany stood at €200.50/MWh and Austria at €198.69/MWh, reinforcing an east-west divide in average pricing levels across the covered markets. Daily averages also masked intraday volatility in hourly outcomes for several countries. Serbia’s hourly prices ranged from €19.40/MWh to €280/MWh, with the maximum in hour 20.
Serbia’s peak-period average was €101.30/MWh versus an off-peak average of €174.60/MWh. Montenegro showed a similar spread, ranging from €15/MWh to €258.90/MWh, while Greece briefly fell to minus €1/MWh before reaching €240.70/MWh later in the day and Croatia’s maximum climbed to €315.10/MWh.
Forward markets and carbon-linked inputs
Forward prices firmed following the spot-day developments described in the report window. Hungarian November power rose €3/MWh to €208/MWh and week 41 increased to €199.50/MWh. November gas advanced by €1.50/MWh to €75.50/MWh.
EU carbon allowances edged up to €85.64 per tonne as forward inputs moved higher alongside power contracts.
For Serbian buyers, the lower daily settlement reduced average procurement costs for delivery on 2 October according to the report figures provided for SEEPEX settlement levels and regional comparisons with HUPX and other hubs mentioned above.