Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply on Friday, with Serbia becoming the region’s most expensive market. Weaker wind generation, higher cross-border import requirements and persistent supply constraints pushed wholesale prices towards €280/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX market climbed to €277.57/MWh, the highest daily baseload average among the monitored exchanges.
SEEPEX increased by €24.8/MWh to €277.57/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX exchange rose by €16.4/MWh to €269.23/MWh, while Romania reached €261.92/MWh and Bulgaria €256.57/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN market increased by €239.78/MWh, extending the upward pressure across the Western Balkans.
Consumption and wind output fall while imports increase
The price increases occurred alongside a forecast 428 MW decline in regional electricity consumption to 31,810 MW. Forecast wind generation fell by 1,662 MW to 2,909 MW, while net imports rose by 1,023 MW to 3,385 MW. The gap between weaker consumption and higher prices aligned with renewable availability, import dependence and cross-border conditions.
The largest percentage increase was recorded in Greece, where HENEX jumped by €45.6/MWh to €206.18/MWh, remaining the cheapest monitored market. North Macedonia rose by €29.3/MWh to €251.64/MWh, Bulgaria gained €23.3/MWh and Albania increased by €7.5/MWh to €257.08/MWh.
The regional rally continued alongside price separation from Western Europe. Germany traded at €210.67/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €58.57/MWh premium despite faster German gains during the latest session. Hungary’s premium over Greece narrowed to €63.05/MWh from about €92.3/MWh as Greek prices recovered sharply.
Hourly scarcity signals diverge from daily averages
Hourly price profiles showed stronger scarcity signals than daily averages indicated. Serbia’s maximum hourly price reached €405.10/MWh at hour 19, while Hungary peaked at €382.30/MWh in the same hour. Albania approached €400/MWh with a maximum of €399/MWh, while Romania and Bulgaria reached €356.90/MWh and €354.70/MWh respectively.
The daily averages also masked differences in intraday price shapes across markets. Serbia’s off-peak average stood at €284.60/MWh, above its peak-period average of €270.50/MWh, while Hungary’s off-peak power averaged €281/MWh versus €257.40/MWh during peak hours. Greece showed a contrasting pattern, with its minimum hourly price falling to zero around midday and its maximum rising to €321.10/MWh.
Generation balance weakens and cross-border flows shift
The physical market balance deteriorated as forecast electricity production declined by 1,450 MW to 28,425 MW. Wind output losses were only partly offset by a 233 MW increase in solar generation.
Cross-border schedules adjusted most visibly at the Italian borders. The monitored region moved from net exports of approximately 79 MW to Italy on Thursday to net imports of 679 MW on Friday, a swing of 758 MW. In parallel, combined imports through the Austrian and Slovak corridors increased by only 83 MW to 2,766 MW.
Bulgaria recorded one of the largest changes in its electricity balance as forecast consumption increased by 628 MW to 4,361 MW, while domestic production fell by 248 MW to 4,245 MW. Bulgaria shifted from being a net exporter of 760 MW on Thursday to a net importer of 116 MW. Romania’s net import requirement increased from €641 MW to €818 MW as domestic generation fell against broadly unchanged demand.
Bilateral flows explain Serbia’s premium; Montenegro stays near balance
A national electricity balance provided one explanation for Serbia’s elevated market pricing levels. Forecast consumption fell from 3,969 MW to 3,753 MW, while domestic generation declined from 2,942 MW to 2,693 MW. The resulting net import requirement increased slightly to approximately 1,061 MW, equivalent to more than 28% of forecast consumption.
Certain commercial schedules showed deliveries into Serbia from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro: Bosnia and Herzegovina scheduled an average of 435 MW, Bulgaria 304 MW, North Macedonia 317 MW and Montenegro 165 MW toward Serbia. Serbia maintained average scheduled exports of