Southeast European day-ahead power prices mostly declined on Friday as demand eased and solar generation recovered sharply. Romania, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Serbia nevertheless remained among Europe’s more expensive electricity markets, with the region still dependent on imports. The decline was uneven, with prices rising in Greece, Italy and Montenegro.
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark fell €29.1/MWh to €234.07/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX dropped €18.4/MWh to €242.27/MWh. Romania recorded the highest price among the region’s major markets at €250.35/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €246.60/MWh and Bulgaria at €245.91/MWh. Slovenia fell €13.7/MWh to €214.92/MWh, Croatia lost €13.2/MWh to €220.86/MWh, and North Macedonia declined €16.7/MWh to €232.80/MWh.
Greece rose €24.5/MWh to €225.80/MWh, Italy gained €15.1/MWh to €240.44/MWh, and Montenegro increased €7.7/MWh. Germany remained much cheaper at €137.59/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €96.49/MWh premium despite its price decline. That spread narrowed by around €18/MWh from Thursday but remained wide, reflecting persistent congestion and the value of north-to-south transmission capacity.
Solar recovery reshapes hourly prices
Regional solar production was forecast at about 5.15 GW, more than 2 GW higher day on day. Wind output, by contrast, was expected to fall by almost 2.8 GW to around 795 MW. Forecast regional consumption declined by about 1.26 GW from Thursday to 31.31 GW.
The shift in generation sharpened the difference between prices within the day. On HUPX, baseload averaged €234.1/MWh, but the price fell to €86.7/MWh during the solar-heavy middle of the day before reaching a maximum of €314.5/MWh. Hungarian peak power averaged €192.2/MWh, well below the €276/MWh off-peak average, as solar suppressed conventional daytime peak prices and scarcity shifted towards morning and evening hours.
Greek peak power averaged €197/MWh against €254.6/MWh off-peak. The HEnEx minimum recovered to €90/MWh after falling close to zero in the previous session. The widening difference between solar hours and evening periods has become an increasingly important trading signal for batteries, flexible generation and industrial consumers.
Lower demand and stronger solar output eased spot prices, but several gigawatts of imports were still needed across Southeast Europe. As renewable production declined towards the evening, the region remained exposed to gas, coal, imports and transmission constraints. That hourly volatility, rather than a single daily high or low, was an increasingly important feature of the market for traders, generators and storage investors.
Regional import requirements remain substantial
Net imports across Hungary and Southeast Europe were forecast at about 3.62 GW, down 872 MW from Thursday but still substantial. Inflows from the Austrian and Slovak direction remained particularly high at around 4.21 GW. At the same time, the region shifted to net exports of about 519 MW towards Italy, with electricity moving through several interconnected price zones rather than only from western Europe into one regional deficit area.
Romania had one of the largest deficits, with forecast consumption of about 6.30 GW and generation of around 4.66 GW. Its average imports were near 1.63 GW. Hungary’s consumption stood at roughly 4.23 GW against domestic generation of around 3.13 GW, leaving imports of approximately 1.10 GW.
Serbian consumption was forecast at around 4.01 GW, compared with generation of roughly 3.20 GW. That left an average import requirement of about 809 MW and helped keep SEEPEX at €242.27/MWh even after a drop of almost €20/MWh from the previous session. Serbia traded roughly €8/MWh above Hungary and more than €100/MWh above Germany, underscoring the importance of cross-border capacity, domestic generation availability and balancing requirements for its wholesale prices.
Croatia also remained a large importer, with a deficit of around 863 MW. Greece moved in the opposite direction: generation of around 6.47 GW exceeded consumption of approximately 5.24 GW. Its exports were roughly 1.23 GW.
Hungary carries west-to-east power flows
Cross-border flows showed Hungary acting as both an importing market and a transit hub. It imported heavily from Slovakia and Austria while sending large volumes eastwards to Romania. Commercial Hungary-to-Romania flows reached around 1.58 GW on a baseload basis.
Hungary was therefore importing from cheaper western and central European markets while exporting towards higher-priced eastern markets. The Germany-Hungary spread remained a key signal for Southeast European electricity traders. Even with several gigawatts moving towards the region, available transmission capacity was insufficient to fully arbitrage the price difference.
Forward power and fuel prices strengthen
Forward contracts remained firmer than Friday’s day-ahead price decline. Hungarian Week 44 power increased to €265.50/MWh, Week 45 rose to €271.50/MWh, and November climbed to €255.50/MWh. The November Hungary-Germany forward spread stood at around €57.50/MWh, while the Week 44 spread remained close to €90/MWh.
Fuel prices also strengthened. Austrian CEGH gas rose to €91.77/MWh, Greek gas to €81.56/MWh, and EU carbon allowances to €86.47/tCO₂. November gas traded around €91.50/MWh, while November coal stood near $151 a tonne.